This is the biggest weekend of the year, in terms of teams competing (565), number of events (11), and history to be written. After 1024 became the fourth member of the three-win club last week, two more teams, 217 and 1114, attempt to win their third regional of the year this week. The Simbots, hot off their sweep of the eliminations in Waterloo, travel to Toronto to attempt to win their fourth straight GTR. The Thunder Chickens have had two weeks of rest since topping 100 four times with 469 and 440 to win Detroit, and suit up to try and pick up banner number three at the Great Lakes Regional.
This weekend, perhaps more than any other, we will see the rift between the top levels of competition and the bottom. Several events this weekend will have elite “upper crusts” form from the top competitors, and the less proficient teams will struggle to keep up. When pairs of these elite teams face in the eliminations, it will often be up to the lower level teams to make the difference as the third partner. The relative strength and size of the upper tier teams will vary by event, but the impact on the play should be about the same. Expect any alliances that can pair multiple of them to become instant favorites, but when they become split up the eliminations to become a lot more interesting. Where will that happen? Why don’t you read the PREDICTIONS:
HAWAI’I
The Aloha State has opened its doors for the first ever Hawai’i regional. Unsurprisingly it has attracted more than a few mainlanders out into the Pacific to join in the fun. Six regional champs (25, 233, 254, 337, 368, and 968) chose this as their second event of the year, and will duke it out for gold. More than half of the 37 team field is rookies though, which may spell trouble in terms of depth of the field. Pictures of these local rookies show surprisingly strong results, and more than a few of them will be capable of hurdling. This event will be an interesting mix, and potentially very offensive based, even from the less skilled lower tiers. Expect more than a handful of blowouts and high scores through the course of the weekend.
368 is pretty convincingly the best of the local breed. Kiki Mana won Portland week 1, and wants to do the same in their home state. Their solid hurdling machine should be a top contender, but will likely have to pair with another elite machine if they want to add another gold.
233 already did something they couldn’t do last year, win a regional. I don’t think they’re done yet though, I expect them to take a stab at adding a second gold medal in Overdrive this weekend. Pink always improves as the year goes on, and should be even more impressive in Hawai’i as they were in their home Florida event. They’ll be off the board by the time the second alliance has made their first pick.
They haven’t fallen short of the finals at a regional since 2005, and I doubt 25 wants to back down now. 25’s hybrid will be their biggest weapon this weekend, much as it was in Jersey all the way back in Week 1. Their potential to run more than an entire lap and remove balls in hybrid makes them very dangerous in any match. At the end of jersey teams started to focus defense on their attempts to acquire trackballs though, which greatly hurt their tele-operated scoring. Their lack of an active pick-up system may haunt them in Hawai’i once the defense is turned on in the eliminations if they can’t find a partner who can score like 103. The good news is that there are at least four other teams that might be able to match well with 25 to form a very formidable alliance.
Looking at a picture of 2348 you wouldn’t guess that this clean-designed roller-claw machine comes from a rookie. They’ll likely be among the top native teams and could even contend with some of the big names. They could be a formidable scorer capable of filling out an alliance with one of the elite teams that can’t unify with another elite partner. They could also easily have a match similar to 2200 last weekend where when partnered with an elite team can put up a blisteringly high score in Qualification. Watch for a strong showing, but it’ll be very tough for them to capture a medal.
FIRST’s most prominent and deadly pair of twins is on display again this weekend. Both 254 and 968 picked up regional victories in their first outing of Overdrive. RAWC has been the more impressive of the pair, by a solid margin, so far in '08, but the Poofs still have tons of potential. Both teams have made further improvements to their bots since they last competed too, which will make them even more dangerous. Beyond the mechanical improvements, rumors are circulating about a higher scoring hybrid, but I heard the same before 254 competed in San Jose. I would be shocked if at least one of the pair isn’t in the winners circle at the end of the weekend.
COLORADO:
Of the 44 teams attending, only 25% have competed already in Overdrive, and only 4 are currently signed up to attend Championship. The mean team number is 1690, but only two are rookies. What does all this mean? Well, that a majority of this field are younger teams that have little experience outside of the highly defensive Colorado regional. I expect their designs and strategies to reflect that too. The regional also has a history of out of town teams doing very well, such as 233 (FL) and 118 (TX) defeating 64 (AZ) in the finals in 2005, or 555 (NJ) topping 207 (CA) in the finals last year.
1625 is easily the biggest name in Denver this weekend. Winnovation has been a top contender at both of their previous events, only to fall short in the semi-finals in both Chicago and Wisconsin. Plagued by malfunctions and technical issues, Winnovation has taken steps to mitigate and prevent them in Colorado, but they may rear their ugly head again. If 1625 can’t capture their first victory of Overdrive this weekend though it will be nothing short of shocking.
Alpine Robotics is one of the best of breed locally in Colorado. 159 should be a top contender, and will likely either be a captain or an early selection.
1592 had a decent showing in Florida, but weren’t in the same class as the top contenders such as 233, 103, 179, or others. The Bionic Tigers’ arm is a bit slow and top heavy for me to guarantee a medal for them in Denver, but I would be shocked if they can’t at least get further than they did in Florida. In this shallow field they should be one of the top hurdlers.
MINNESOTA:
If you thought the Oklahoma City regional was young last weekend, wait until you see Minnesota. Only 9 of the 54 teams played Aim High in 2006, and 30 teams are rookies. They do have a handful of solid machines, but if any two consistent hurdlers pair up, they will likely take the regional by storm.
93 had a very strong outing in Wisconsin, knocking off the 1730/1625/1675 alliance in the Semi-finals, and taking the eventual champions to three matches. NEW Apple Corp should do much of the same in an shallower Minnesota competition. They will likely find themselves in one of the top 4 alliances, and I’d be very surprised if they don’t head home with a medal around their neck.
2175 hasn’t competed yet in '08, but their hurdling machine should do well in Minnesota. Watch for a decent outing from the Fighting Calculators.
525 is viewed by many as the second best scoring machine in St. Louis during week 1. They gave the #1 alliance a hard run for their money in the Semi-finals, and will likely have another very good performance this weekend. I expect them to be another early selection and be playing late into saturday.
525 and/or 93 will be on the winning alliance when all is said and done.
LONG ISLAND:
Despite being a mid-sized regional who’s median team number is only 840, Long Island has rarely been a beacon of outstanding play. It doesn’t help that two of last year’s champs, 234 and 229, aren’t returning this year. The quality of play should be similar to what we saw in Pittsburgh during week three, with low-scoring, close matches. Penalties will be a big factor, and will likely change the result of more than one elimination series.
271 usually has strong outings, and I’d expect them to unveil another solid machine this weekend. They’ll be playing in the eliminations without a doubt.
Even though 383 did most of the scoring for their alliance in Connecticut, 870 still captained an alliance into the Semi-finals. I don’t know if they’ll be as successful here, but in a much more forgiving field they should be able to pick up some wins.
522 didn’t finish as strong as I predicted in Pittsburgh, but they give it another go this weekend. The Robowizards will have a decent shot at adding a medal to their collection if they can keep up the pressure all weekend and avoid any technical issues.
102 was a crowd and CD favorite for their speedy and tiny bot Orion in Jersey. They only won a single match all weekend though, their driving was questionable at best, and their ground clearance so low they often were hung up on the lane divider. They should have a distinct advantage over most other lap runners if they can control their bot though, and they’ll once again be playing Saturday afternoon, but I don’t think they’ll escape the quarter-finals.
375 made the finals in Pittsburgh with their shooter, but was stopped short of gold. The Robotic Plague will have another successful event this weekend in New York. I expect them to be a very early selection (if not a top captain), and they are the current favorites to win.
BOSTON:
With eleven teams under 200 and seven rookies, Boston has a very interesting mix of teams. After the extreme veterans, the crowd quickly gets younger, with the median team being 1757. There will likely be a very recognizable split between the competitive and the non.
61 and 88 both made the finals at their last event, and in a field where the depth will quickly thin out will have an impact again. I don’t see either adding another medal unless they have favorable alliance pairings though. At least one of the two will be an alliance captain.
The next one from my sources:
40- They got their first regional win in Manchester week 1 and their is no doubt Dan and the guys from Intellitek would love to add another set of medals. with a successful autonomous they may be tough to beat especially if they pick up a good set of alliance partners.
40 is one of the elite in Boston, and their performance will reflect that. Expect them to be at least invited to one of the top three alliances and at has a strong chance of making the finals.
125 hit some issues in Arizona, but still managed to make the SFs. Their shooter should be more consistent in Boston, and will likely be a first-round selection.
ALARM is one of the rising powers among the young Boston-area teams. 2079 made the quarter-finals in Pittsburgh, and will crack the eliminations again here.
HYPER added another medal to their collection in Florida, but it was silver. 69 is one of the Boston Brahmins, and will fair very well this weekend. They have a strong chance at defending their title.
20 was very impressive in Rochester week 2, and the Rocketeers won’t relent in week 5. They are current favorite for gold by a very narrow margin over 40 and 69. If they can pair with either of those teams, they will have little problem winning the event.
BAYOU:
The move from week 2 to week 5 has made this second year event catapult skywards in terms of competitive teams attending. Since it’s no longer the same weekend at the Florida event, a number more of the Floridians are venturing out, combined with some teams from Michigan, Connecticut, and New Jersey taking a much longer trip, New Orleans will be hosting a solid event.
118 battled with technical issues last weekend, and it helped cost them the finals. The Robonauts will need to avoid those issues in a much more intense field if they want to win. They had an impressive outing in Texas, although they could potentially be more impressive if they tone down the range they shoot. It shot so far at Lonestar that it would bounce out of the arena, and they would have to stop to shoot. 118 should be in the semi-finals at least.
Cold Fusion had some very impressive matches in Trenton, and some not so impressive matches. If 1279 can improve their ability to acquire the trackball, and thus their consistency, they’ll be a top tier team in Bayou. If they can’t they should still be a first round selection, but it will be tough for them to make it past the semi-finals.
148 is one of very few undefeated teams (that have attended an event) left. They went 16-0 all the way back in week 1, without the ability to hurdle. Once again they’ll likely be the top lap-running bot at this event, and their vicious hybrid should make them a contender. I expect improvements to their bot as well, making them an even bigger threat. Despite this, it’ll take a very strong alliance for them to top some of these hurdling machines. If they can break up the other top notch hurdlers, and secure one for themselves, the Robowranglers will have a shot, but if two strong hurdlers pair, they’ll face an uphill battle. Regardless of their finish, I see them losing at least one match this weekend.
Exploding Bacon is one of the most respected young teams in FIRST, but they have yet to win a regional. 1902 was dropped by the eventual champions in the first round in Florida, and will try to build on that in Bayou. They should have a solid performance, but they aren’t quite on the same level as a couple of the other hurdling machines. They’ll need a strong partner to secure their first regional victory, but its entirely within the realm of possibility.
16 was nothing short of spectacular in Chicago. The Bomb Squad is back in full force, and I expect another amazing performance in New Orleans. They were eliminated by the 1114/1024/2041 alliance in the semi-finals, and they have some room to improve their hybrid, but their tele-operated scoring is through the roof. I’ll be shocked if they aren’t at least invited to the #1 alliance, and if they don’t reach the finals.
PHILADELPHIA:
One of the most veteran regionals, more than half of the field has 3 digit numbers. Despite this age, the field of consistent hurdlers will thin out quickly, and there will be a great deal of defense. Each of the past two winning alliance captains have been defensive bots, and defensive play will result in several of the top scoring machines finding themselves on the outside of the top 8 when alliance selection starts.
Most of the eyes will be focused on the team this tipster mentions:
103-After completely dominating Jersey, Cybersonics caught some tough breaks in FL. They are still the team to beat and look ready as ever to notch their first 2 regional win season. Does a 2 regional wins mean this HOF team will take the trip to Atlanta?
103 originally selected the Florida regional to attend instead of Championship, but another strong outing might convince them to attend Atlanta as well. They struggled late in Florida once the defense was applied, and defense will be ever present in Philadelphia. Defense cost their alliance last year, and it may hurt them again. They’re still likely the top hurdling machine (at least when left alone), and if they can find a partner to take some of the load they should emerge with gold.
Another from the same informant:
272-At FLR, 272 was plagued by technical and health problems in the qualifying matches, but was still selected 2nd overall. If all goes well, they can challenge 103 for best shooter.
272 will have to build consistency if they want to win, but they have the potential to be great. A five hurdle match in Rochester shows what they can do when everything falls in place, and if they can keep that up they will be a top tier team.
316, 341, 357, 816, and 1712 will likely make up the second tier of hurdling machines (behind the 103, 272, and 365). If the big three are split among three different alliances these teams will likely play a large role in deciding who emerges as Champion, but if two of the big three can pair up, the second level likely won’t be able to stop them. Two of these teams will likely be alliance captains, and the others picked somewhere in the first round.
365 was the first over-all selection in Rochester, but was knocked out by winning alliance in the Semi-finals. The Miracle Workerz will have another impressive event in Philadelphia. The most recent addition to the Hall of Fame will be on one of the top alliances, and should be in the finals.
LAS VEGAS:
While it’s still a respectable field, this isn’t the Los Vegas of last year. 79, 233, 254, 1885, 1902, and 1983 didn’t return for Overdrive, which will take a big hit out of the competitive level of the teams attending. There will still some high scores put up through-out the weekend, and some potential for quality elimination matches.
39 dominated Arizona, only suffering one loss the whole weekend. They are on par with 16 and 103 as one of the most impressive “pure shooters” competing. The 39th Aero Squadron will be very dangerous in Vegas, and will put up a few blisteringly high scores when they have capable partners. Their fork-based acquisition could spell trouble if they become the focus of defense, but I expect a very strong performance. 39 will be in the top eight, and will use that position to help determine their partner.
473 may have been defeated in the finals in Oregon, but they built momentum in the eliminations in Portland they hope to carry into Nevada. They came together as a decent shooter, and should be a contender again in week 5.
1540 come with a victory at Oregon and a very solid machine. They hurdle, but not extremely well. They won most of their matches in Oregon by opening a big lead with their impressive hybrid mode (a ball or two and usually 2-3 lines), and hurdles once or twice. Will it be enough in Las Vegas? Perhaps. Especially if they can construct their alliance like they did in Portland (#1 seed, grab a solid hurdler, and through a lot of luck, grab another of the regional’s top 5 hurdles with their second pick).
987 is one of the most dominant teams in West in recent years. The reigning FIRST champs had a very impressive outing in San Diego, securing the #1 seed and taking 968, 1717, and 294 to three matches in the finals. Rumor has it they will be even better in their home state, which will make them truly fearsome. Last year they paired with 39 and lost in the finals, but if those two pair again they’ll tear through the eliminations with-out a hitch. The High Rollers are my current favorite to take home gold in Vegas.
PALMETTO:
South Carolina rarely penetrates the discussion of elite events, and despite the lack of perennial national powers, they always have a very competitive, entertaining event. I don’t expect the 2008 edition to quite be up to the 2006 or 2007 caliber, but Palmetto should be a fun event again.
1251 paired up with Pink to sweep the eliminations in Florida. The Tech Tigers have built a solid hurdling machine that will do very well in South Carolina. Much like last year, they aren’t going to blow you away, but they are consistent and very competitive. They should be one of the top few machines, and I don’t see them falling short of the semi-finals.
1319 won gold here in 2007, and carried that momentum all the way to Einstein. They won Peacthree back in week 3, and look poised to try and defend their title. They will be a definite factor, and likely an alliance captain.
Metal-in-Motion already have a win in '08, pairing up with 1319 to win Peachtree. 343 looks poised to attempt to add another banner in their home state. Watch for them to use their roller claw to be among the top scoring machines, and I would be surprised if they can’t capture some form of medal.
TORONTO:
Sixty-six teams compete north of the border this weekend, only eight of which are rookies. This isn’t the GTR of years past though, with only seven American teams competing, none of which are named Thunder Chicken, Technokat, or Division by Zero. Toronto will still play host to a several competitive teams, but it is no longer an “elite regional”.
1114 is obviously the big story. Only one team in FIRST history has won four banners in a single year, and if the Simbots can win their fourth consecutive GTR, they’ll do just that. The previous team to win four gold medals? Well, that was 1114 in 2006, when they won the Great Lakes, Waterloo, and Greater Toronto regionals, as well as the Waterloo Chairman’s. 1114 is unquestionably the best ‘bot in Toronto going into the event, and it will take some major failures for them to come up shy. Without a doubt they will at least be invited to join the #1 alliance. If I had to pick 1114 or the field right now, I’d pick 1114.
1507 could be the most impressive of the Americans venturing up into Canada. The Warlocks seeded first at Finger Lakes, and should be in the mix in Toronto. Watch for another top 10 finish and a solid outing.
1676 did decent in Jersey for a team who’s elevator took a whopping 15 seconds to raise to hurdling height. Apparently they’ve cut that time by more than half in preparation for Toronto, which could make them a decent scoring threat here. The πoneers will likely end up on the 6th, 7th, or 8th alliance, but it’ll be difficult for them to reach the finals again.
2200 was a part of the epic 168 point match in Waterloo, but will have to be more consistent if they want to win Toronto. They have the potential to be a solid scoring machine, but aren’t quite there yet. They should be a first round selection, but I don’t know if they can get past the semi-finals.
2056 is looking like the second best team at the event. With 1310 at their potential, 68 not attending, and 188 and 2200 too inconsistent, the Patriotics appear to be the prime candidate to pair with 1114. If either 2056 or 1114 seed first, they’ll likely win their fifth even in the past two years together. If 2056 cannot pair up with 1114, they have a decent shot at making the finals, but it will be governed by their alliance partners’ abilities as much as their own.
GREAT LAKES:
Uhh…WOW!
Ypsilanti is STACKED. 27, 33, 47, 65, 67, 68, 70, 217, 469, 494, 503, 910, and 1718!
I would not be surprised to see two or three of these teams on Einstein, this regional is that good. Without a doubt the best regional of the weekend, and most likely the year.
27 has shown flashes of absolute brilliance, but they weren’t able to keep the lightning in the bottle long enough to win Detroit. Rush will have to hold off the technical issues if they want to win an even more intense GLR. When everything works they could be even more deadly than the feared Thunder Chickens. We know they wanted to pair with 217 in Detroit, so an alliance with them wouldn’t be out of the question. If Rush stays healthy, they will be a huge factor, and will be in the finals.
494 and 70 had a much better showing in WMR than they did in St. Louis, when they almost knocked Beatty out in the semi-finals. They will both be factors again this weekend, but it’ll be tough for them to hang with some of the more “run and gun” teams. I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them leave with a medal, but it’s far from a guarantee and they would have to find a very strong partner.
More than one source has commented to me about 830’s defensive, strategic, lap-running, and generic “utility-bot” abilities. The Rat Pack paired with 217 to win St. Louis, shares a sponsor with 469, and has friendly relationships with several other powerhouse teams. 830 could be a critical factor as the third member if two alliances each with a pair of awesome hurdlers clash during the eliminations.
67 had a favorable showing in Rochester, but was knocked out in the semi-finals. HOT hasn’t been able to win their past six events though, a long drought for this storied veteran and Hall of Fame team. No individual team will be able to carry an alliance through this packed field, but if HOT pairs up with 217, 27, 33, or 469 they’ll have a very legitimate chance to jump back into the winner’s circle.
The Gorillas have a history of improving their bots as the year continues, and I expect 469 to be even more impressive in Ypsilanti than they were in Detroit. They have a history with 217, and would love to repeat the events of two weeks ago and pair with them again. They aren’t as flashy or overpowering as 27 or 217, but with the right partner Las Guerillas could score their second regional victory as well. I’ve also been told to “expect a surprise” from 469, which may mean we see a retooled system on their robot that could potentially make it very scary…
217 has a target the size of a small country on their backs this weekend as they attempt to join the historic ranks of three-regional winners. They break 100 points in more than 25% of the matches they play, and have yet to lose an elimination match, making them a huge threat worthy of the massive target. They beat a loaded 27/47/453 alliance in Detroit and a 525/2062/2044 alliance in Missouri, so we know they can overcome stiff competition. They were the only hurdling bot on their alliance in St. Louis, so they can carry the load (although 148 and 830 were not “carried” through that event, they both had significant impacts on the eliminations). They have lost four (and tied one) qualification match though, meaning they might not be able to control their own fate during lunch on Saturday, which could spell trouble. Additionally this event is so freaking competitive it would be insane to pick anyone against the field. The Thickens are likely the best, or at least most consistently great, team competing at Great Lakes, but they will have a very very very hard time winning event #3. If I had to pick a single team it would be them…
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