Predictions Week 6: Damaged Defenses
Stronghold may be reaching its steady state, at least in terms of open play events. Week 5 saw a slight bump in qualification capture rates compared to week 4, but elimination capture, qualification breach, and elimination breach rates stayed virtually the same. Similarly, scores only took a slight tick upwards compared to the sizable jumps from week 3 to week 4. The one big area of improvement was the average high goals per match. Similar play should carry forwards into week 6 regionals, but the start of district championships creates the opportunity for new developments in play styles. The “floor” of play at DCMP is significantly higher than all other events (even Championship), and virtually every match is comparable to a playoff match at most events. While breaches can almost be taken for granted at most events, alliances will have to do put up significantly more points than simply breaching if they want to be consistent winners in qualifications at DCMPs. Scoring teams will have to concern themselves less with crossing multiple defenses, and capture rates should climb as a result. Figuring out boulder supplies and scoring flows (especially on low goal heavy alliances) will become increasingly important, generally meaning more coordination and communication will be required. Qualification defense may also become more common, as teams focused on defense crossings will have to find new uses for themselves after breaches are quickly accomplished or when their partners need little assistance is weakening the tower.
Chesapeake District Championship
In the past couple years, Chezy Champs has emerged as the premiere off-season event on the west coast. In 2016, the east coast has a CHeSy championship of its own. The 132 teams in the freshly fermented FIRST Chesapeake District have been pared down 58 for the inaugural district championship taking place just outside the nation’s capital. To this point, the district has largely been dominated by efficient low goal cycling machines and defense crossings. With only the top end of the entrants competing, teams will have to learn new tricks in order to get a leg up.
Among the teams that decided to build specifically for low goal cycles across defenses, 836 and 5279 have been among the most successful. Neither team features the ability to scale or shoot high, but that has not stopped them from combining for three #1 seeds, four appearances on the #1 alliance, and three event wins across the four events the two teams played. The RoboBees’ agile driving gives them a leg up, and their breach and capture rates throughout the season have been nothing short of marvelous, suggesting that they may be able to translate their success into a strong ranking position even in a much more competitive field. 1418and 2363 have also found similar levels of success as low goal cyclers, including a win together in Northern Virginia in week one, but both teams also boast the ability to elevate themselves in the end game. Vae Victus’ consistent hang is the most proven in the district (arguably even better than scaling specialists 2534 and 5546), and their effective breach play should help them earn a position on a strong alliance. If Triple Helix can successfully add high goal capability to their machine, it would further enhance their ability to match-up against the top teams. A number of other teams have found varying levels of success with low goal and breaching strategies, including 1629, 1137, 4638, 1111, 1262, 686, 422, 449, 1719, 1389, and 1610. With such a large crowd of similar teams, consistency will be important (particularly in autonomous) but finding a slick feature to distinguish yourself will be even more crucial in getting noticed during alliance selection. It may be dusting off the high goal shooters that have lay dormant, but it could just as easily be ways to create point gaps in autonomous or shut down their opponents in tele-op.
Showing off defensive ability will be important, since many of the districts high goal launchers like to fire from the batter or open floor. 1086 has shown the most ability to fire from the safety of the outerworks, and earned gold in both Blacksburg and Doswell as a result. But ball security as Blue Cheese crosses defenses and takes hits from opponents may still be a concern. 1731 has already demonstrated the ability to go shot-for-shot with 1086, and Fresca Valley Robotics is arguably the districts most prolific shooter and the best team without a win this season in FIRST Chesapeake. Despite preferring to fire from the middle of the courtyard, 1731’s quick targeting and release make them a challenging target to defend. 122 and 401 have also used their high goal abilities to play deep into tournaments, with the NASA Knights winning in Hampton Roads and the two teams pairing up to reach the finals in Doswell. 1885 used a blend of high and low shooting in their finals trip in Portsmouth, and their turreted shooter has the potential to be one of the better scoring devices at the event if they can speed up their alignment and launch times. 339, 346, and 4945 have also shown some shooting potential, and are worth keeping an eye on (particularly the RoboHawks, who can also scale the tower).
NC FIRST Robotics State Championship
Indiana paved the way for smaller states to run solo districts last year, and the 52 teams in North Carolina followed suit this year. 32 of the best from the Tarheel state will look to be the ones to sink the last second game winning shot this time around. Unlike Indiana, where high goals and unfettered offense have reigned supreme since the beginning of the season, NC District play has been dominated largely by defense crossings. Two of the four events in the state failed to see a single capture, but the rates have improved in later weeks with 8 captures at UNC Ashville and 13 at Campbell University. With only proven competitors and plenty of experience under teams’ belts, look to see those rates climb significantly. No longer will securing a capture be a surefire win.
2655 had led the pack in North Carolina virtually all season, captaining the #2 alliance to the finals in week one and then winning events in weeks 3 and 5 and picking up a Chairman’s Award along the way. The Flying Platypi are a consistent breacher and low goal scoring machine, and pack a 15 point low bar autonomous routine to help give them an early edge. 3506 clashed against 2655 in the eliminations three times this season, getting the better of them in the finals at Guilford. 435, 2059, 4290, and 4935 also found success playing a style focused on maximizing crossings and low goal scores. With an abundance of teams capable of contributing to breaching efforts, the state’s launchers may be afforded more time in matches to focus on launching boulders. 587, 900, 1533, 2642, 4561, 5160, and 5511 aren’t afraid to ring the chains when provided the time and space to align properly. The Pitt Pirates have the most refined outerworks shot, and it helped them claim victory in Wake County. Triple Strange’s “swank” drive helps them establish position near the batter either for high or low shots. Perhaps more importantly, 1533 is NC’s most established hanger, which propelled their alliance to the semis at Ashville and a victory at Campbell. 2682 is another threat to put up a 15 point end-game, but doesn’t bring as much utility as Triple Strange to the rest of the match. The competition in Charlotte is poised to be leaps and bounds more competitive than the events that proceeded it in North Carolina this season. The stronger offensive teams will be given more ability to focus on putting up points, and will have to spend less time worrying about crossing defenses to secure breaches, which should significantly change the way the game is played. As a result, expect more captures and higher scores for much of the event.
** Pacific Northwest District Championship:**
After a year hiatus, the PNW District Championship is back in its rightful home at the Memorial Coliseum in Portland. 64 teams are descending for the honor of being the 3rd PNW District Champion. After 9 district events, the rankings have been sorted, and have some interesting changes at the top. After 2 years going into PNW champs ranked in the top 2, Shockwave is ranked #9 this season. 4488’s season has been more difficult this year, barely pulling off the win in Wilsonville, and then losing in the Semis at Philomath because of a Red Card and a jammed ball. With the pattern of 2 district wins from the #1 seed broken, perhaps this could be the year they break the trend and take home the gold, rather than losing to Skunkworks in the finals. Speaking of Skunkworks, 1983 had an interesting season as well. Even though they took home the gold at their first 2 events, their robot wasn’t the dominant scoring machine everyone was expecting out of the gate, instead focusing on breaching and low goaling to rack up early banners. Their shooter was added mid-season and was improving by Philomath, but the robot had taken a beating through 3 events. With some time back at the shop, and a few new tricks up their sleeves, you can bet that the Skunks are rearing up to defend their repeat title at the 3rd PNW Championship.
The Flaming Chickens have easily built their best robot since at least 2008, if not ever. 1540 had a great high goal shooter and breacher at Wilsonville, but the robot was absolutely on fire at Oregon City. Coming away with the #1 seed and a 12-0 record, they easily handled playoffs, notching their first event win since 2012. They’ll be one of the premier high goal shooters in Portland and a great alliance partner. Mean Machine also built a fantastic bot this season. Being one of the few tall robots in the PNW this season has it’s advantages. 2471 might not be able to perform a breach by themselves as easily as other bots, but their height can be a significant benefit when firing from the outer works. They will be a highly desired pick, and the addition of a climber will increase their worth even more. 1318 had a relatively low key season in the PNW, but they are not to be counted out just yet. After a disappointing week 1, they came back with a bit of a rebuild and made it to the finals in CWU week 3. Then in week 4 they were the #1 seed at Philomath, narrowly losing again in the finals. With a fast robot and a reliable high goal shot from the batter, they’re looking to rank high again and go far in the playoffs. Error Code Xero built a dominant low goal bot and climber this year, and were one of only 3 teams to win 2 events this season. Even without a high goal shooter, the superior driving from 1425 should help them to rank high and be an asset to any alliance. Two rookies definitely came out strong this season in the PNW. 5803 had some troubles at their first 2 events, but by their 3rd event with all the kinks worked out, Apex came home with their first ever blue banner. With a reliable breach and low goal, plus some very effective defense and climbing, they will be a sought after partner to compliment an alliance. 5920 has been spending their time off continuing to tune and practice. Keep an eye on these young teams to make a splash this weekend.
After its slight out of body moment after their banner-winning performance in Philomath, Xcalibear returned to once again play at a high-level in Auburn. Narrowly missing the finals last week, 2046 will be looking to improve, wanting to bring home the gold again. Also on the radar for improvements in play is 3663. With the red-card fiasco keeping CPR from a second banner in the season, you can bet they will be hungry for more. Since the transition to districts in the PNW, few teams have ventured far from home during the regular season, but Royals did just that. After a ramped up performance and a banner, 2522 traveled to Hawaii and brought home an Engineering Inspiration award. Having already qualified for CMP, the question is will we see a bot-busting performance, or will they take the extra time to prepare for Worlds?
With a deeper level of play than the PNW has ever seen, be sure to watch out for strong performances from the likes of: 2557, 2990, 3238, 3574, 4061, and 4450.
Silicon Valley
Only a handful of other regional events in FRC are as steeped in FIRST history as SVR, even if that history is inextricably linked with one team in particular. 254 built its fame on a win streak in San Jose, winning every iteration of the event until 2007, which remains the lone gap in their SVR resume. The Cheesy Poofs will once again be among the favorites to win their home event, but it’s far from a certainty that they will take home their sixteenth win from the Silicon Valley (aka NASA Ames) Regional. Two other California powerhouses stand as chief competitors. After joining forces with the Poofs in Madera, 1678 paired up with 971 to storm through the Sacramento eliminations. Three of their six matches in the eliminations featured margins of victory in excess of 100 points, and none were closer than 47 points. All three teams are capable of putting on a shooting clinic from virtually anywhere in the courtyard, but so far only the Citrus Circuits have demonstrated the ability for a 15 point end game. Ultimately, qualification rankings will be critically important, as the battle for the #1 seed may decide the regional. With such a tight contest, it’s not unthinkable that autonomous points may end up being a tie breaker in the seeding.
Whichever team gets left out of the powerhouse top pairing is not going to lack for quality options to join forces with. 368 may be the most famous of the other competitors, as started off on fire in Hawaii, with a 14-0 record heading into the semi-finals. However, some critical failures on their alliance cost them in the semis. Kika Mana is equally capable at scoring in both the high and low goal, typically opting for the path of least resistance between them and acquiring a tower capture. When allowed to find their sweet spot just outside the batter, the ultra-speedy 4904 can be a very potent high goal machine. 192 and 649 are also proven launchers from the courtyard, but both teams need to work on their release times to make them a more difficult target to defend. 846 is out to prove that missing the eliminations in Arizona was a fluke, but will have to start aiming high if they wish to match their successes of the past few seasons. 2035 and 1868 are among the most established breaching specialists at the event, with the Robo Rockin’ Bots earning the 3rd seed in Sacramento and the Space Cookies seeding 10th (and being selected before that) in Ventura. While the breach points will be critical, particularly in qualifications, both teams will likely need to improve their contributions in the boulder department if they want to surpass their quarterfinal exits from their first outings. Rookies 6059 also found success at tackling the outerworks. Despite a complete lack of boulder mechanisms, System Overload managed to crack the top 8 at a very competitive Central Valley regional.
Arizona West
Paired up for victory in Los Angeles- 987, 1197
Still looking for their first banner since joining the Hall of Fame- 1538
Claimed Blue and Yellow streamers in Utah- 2468
Captains in the North- 1165, 1492, 2493, 4183
Lone Star
Longest current regional win streak (12)- 118
Trying for 3 wins in 3 states- 233
Looking for win #2- 231, 4587
Last chance to qualify for CMP- 624
Finalist; still hunting for gold- 1477, 3847
Can they “Measure” Up?- 57, 3999
Minnesota 10,000 Lakes
15-1 Record and Two Streamers in Iowa- 525
Been to the finals at their last seven regionals, but lost the past three- 2052
5 autonomous points away from the #1 seed at Northern Lights- 2501
Experienced breachers- 2705
Only 2 breaches led to a poor ranking, but their playoff performance proved their abilities- 2502
Minnesota North Star
MecaTrack’d a 1st round selection in Iowa- 3026
Hoping for a deeper playoff run- 167, 2169, 3130, 3928
Trying to scale the standings- 2194, 3277, 4607
Aiming to earn a ticket to CMP- 2826
Windsor Essex Great Lakes
Starting a new streak?- 2056
4K+ numbered teams- Thirty Six
Long layoffs since their last event- 2200, 2609, 2852
First round selections in Waterloo- 1360, 4678, 4917
On the MSC bubble, looking for an invite straight to CMP- 910
Strong showing at GTRE- 4976
Looking to put tough losses behind them- 1305
FIM District - Ann Arbor Skyline
World high score holder and with a unique gravity fed shooter - 2771
Strong high goal shooter that went toe-to-toe with 67 and 2834 last week - 3536
Up and coming team that is on a run - 3452
Solid teams on the MSC bubble who need a good performance - 3322, 3234, 3641
FIM District - Woodhaven
The favorite with a strong tall robot - 27
The Southfield winner with a strong low goal scorer - 3604
The runner up from Livonia and a dark horse for the event - 5050
Will be playing Saturday afternoon - 2620, 3175, 247, 3302, 3542
FIM District - Traverse City
The top tier of shooters - 5505, 3688
Looking for a few more points to get to MSC - 3414, 1711, 94, 74
Rookies- Thirteen
Captained alliances at their first ever event- 5878, 6075, 6097, 6121
MAR District- Montgomery
Looking to avenge early exits at Mt Olive- 56, 1923, 3637
Tuning up for NECMP- 190
Trying to find their sweet spots- 303, 869, 1089, 3314, 5895
Swift cyclers- 222, 1403, 5684
NE District- Pine Tree
Finishing their 2016 pre-DCMP tour- 125
Having a breakout season- 319
High Performers looking for the W-230, 1519, 133
Hometown Heros- 2648, 4564, 5687
**PCH District- Kennesaw **
High expectations for the High goal- 2415, 1771
Dedicated breachers- 4468, 5632
Looking for a 3rd banner in their 3rd district event- 1261
Why shoot high when you can cycle low?- 1746, 5332
