Over the past few years, no event has predicted how the Championship eliminations would play out that Michigan State Championship. This year, the MAR region will throw its hat into the ring as well, with their own championship event. Anyone curious about what strategies will play out on Einstein will likely get a preview this weekend as the two most competitive events outside of St. Louis play out.
Numerous strategic deployments have emerged as effective ways to win an event over the past few weekends. The FIRST standard “2+1” (two offensive, one defensive) is being challenged this year, and we should see a lot more flexibility in what strategies are employed than we did in 2011. Michigan, and in particular at the Troy event, saw a great deal of crossover play, as the high end teams made crossing over the barrier to collect balls a key part of their arsenal. Other alliances chose to build around a single powerhouse scoring machine, with other teams defending the fender and/or passing balls forward. Others still have overloaded their front court with all three alliance machines, typically with the third playing a ball control role by blocking inbounders (either between the bridges or in the lane itself) or feeding key shooters. Each of these strategies has seen success, and it will be interesting to see which are chosen at events that have minimal “bottom ends” to the field and no shortage of competitive robots to join alliances in the 2nd round.
Qualification rounds will be huge this weekend, as there will be a handful of alliances at both event capable of winning it all. No single team is going to be able to carry an alliance to victory. Thus, the coopertition bridge is going to be huge, and standings manipulation via the bridge has the potential to play a massive role on Saturday morning. Michigan was one of the first areas to catch onto the value of CP, and have continued to lead the world in its usage. 288 and 1718 have completed events with a perfect CP of 24, and 67 successfully co-op balanced in 33 of 36 qualification matches over the course of the season. Leaving a match with less than four QP at either event this weekend is going to put a notable dent in a teams’ odds of a top 8 ranking.
Anyway, enough gibber-jabber. Onto THE PREDICTIONS:
MID-ATLANTIC ROBOTICS CHAMPIONSHIP
MAR has quietly put together an outstanding season. While not on par with FiM at this point, incredibly veteran region has consistently had events with some of the highest average scores each weekend. The mean (8.37) and median (7.13) OPRsfor MAR teams are within fractions of a point of their FiM counterparts* (8.95 and 7.40), both of which are more than a full point above the FRC average (7.32 and 5.80). MAR teams have found a tremendous amount of success outside of the MAR districts as well. 341 and 2590 won Boston and Montreal respectively, both from the #1 seed. 357 topped 1218 in the finals and 3123 in the semis at DC. 714 reached the finals in Baltimore. 1676 and 1279 reached the semis in New York, with 1676 being the first overall selection.
The obvious favorite at the event is Miss Daisy. 341 picked up gold at all three events they attended this season, and all three times from the #1 seed. They’re arguably the best key shooting robot in FRC this season, with deadly accuracy and an incredible autonomous mode that scored five balls in their second finals match in Boston. But they’re not impervious, as they’ve had occasional (but repeated) issues with their elevator motor that has caused them to stop shooting (once again demonstrated in that F2 match in Boston). A poorly timed malfunction there could prove incredibly costly in a deeper field, especially if they’re not aligned with their biggest threat. Additionally, they have yet to complete a triple balance on the competition field, though there hasn’t been a successful triple balance at any MAR event this season and 341’s wide frame makes them a great candidate to complete the maneuver. Daisy’s flaws are minor, and if they can lock up the #1 seed they should be able to take the eliminations by storm. If they’re held out of the #1 seed, it could be more interesting.
If there’s a “wild card” in Philadelphia this weekend, it will be 1370. The most accomplished “physical” defensive machine in the region, Thermogenesis reached the finals at both of their districts (including a win at Rutgers) and were instrumental in shutting down 25 and 1089 at Lenape. But they don’t provide any autonomous scoring, including feeding balls to their partners, and haven’t demonstrated the ability to pass balls forwards across the barrier. They can shut down most fender scoring machines, but MAR has a greater tendency to shoot from the key than most other areas. They have the potential to change the outcomes of elimination matches in the right match-up, but they could miss eliminations entirely in favor of other, more flexible, defensive machines like 816 or 3974.
The biggest threat to Daisy will likely be 365. While 1218 has been the second best team in MAR for most of the season and can still out shoot MOE in tele-op (even after MOE swapped their shooter for Lenape), 365’s autonomous gives them a weapon that Vulcan Robotics doesn’t have and a chance at stopping Daisy from scoring additional balls in hybrid. Additionally, CoMOEtion has typically balanced quicker and more reliably than the Vulcan Viper (a failed double balance cost 1218 finals match 1 in DC). Both teams will be among the mix for #1 seed and both teams will remain huge threats during eliminations. But perhaps the biggest advantage in MOE’s favor is tradition. Much like MSC is the spiritual successor to Great Lakes, MAR Champs is the continuation of the Phildaelphia regional. A regional that 365 has taken home gold from every year since 2008.
A strong contingent of key shooters will make their mark at Temple this weekend, and could potentially threaten the superpowers if the match-ups play right and they execute. 357 is peaking at the right time, going shot-for-shot with Vulcan Robotics in the DC finals and coming out on top. 1676 has shown great potential, including a dominant performance at Rutgers (though it was one of the weaker MAR districts), but has battled accuracy issues and was sent packing in the semis at both of their later events. 2016 has been an accurate and consistent shooter, but hasn’t put up the sheer volume of balls that many other teams have. Despite competing three times this season, they haven’t played since week 3, so it will be interesting to see if they’re rusty or if they’ve spent that time improving. 11 can score in tele-op effectively, but will need to start hitting 2/2 in the first 15 seconds more frequently. 56, 486, 2180, and 2590 will all be factors due to reliable autonomous scoring, but will need to both increase their accuracy and shot volume in the driver controlled portion of the match if they want to escape the quarterfinals.
Watching what happens to the fender scoring machines will be interesting. Some of the best in MAR, including 25 and 222 can back up to they key (and Raider Robotix has had increasing success there, as well as simply plowing defenders out of the way in traditional 25 fashion), giving them an option if heavy defense is applied. But teams like 1403, 224, 423, and 4342 don’t have that option.
MICHIGAN STATE CHAMPIONSHIP
Even before the age of the district structure, Ypsilanti hosted one of the best events of any given FRC season. As Great Lakes morphed into the Michigan State Championship, the level of play has increased to a level that challenges Einstein and IRI. Only 64 of Michigan’s 190 teams will compete here, making it a much more exclusive event than the MAR Championship. Not only will several of the FRC elite cut their teeth against each other here, trying and innovating the strategic landscape, the rest of the FRC world will be paying close attention and learning from them.
Only one team has ever won MSC and the FRC Championship in the same season, 67 in 2009. HOT will aim to replicate that feat this year, with what is the most well rounded robot in FIRST. The Heroes of Tomorrow won three events as the #1 seed, and have seemingly improved at each event. It’s hard to find a weakness in the 67 machine, as it can score large quantities of balls accurately in the key in both hybrid and tele-op, and are the quickest and most reliable double and triple balancing machine out there. Early in the season, they had some issues with dropping balls, but that problem was virtually non-existent in Troy. It will take a coordinated effort and supreme execution to deny 67 gold, but if they can be stopped anywhere, it’s here.
A number of rising powers in Michigan are looking to break through and make their name this weekend. 2474 lost in the semi-finals, despite being a member of the #1 alliance, at the first two events, then punched through to a victory at Niles. They have two distinct scoring mechanisms, a catapult for the key and a quick shooter for the front of the fender. 2834 was one of the teams 2474 topped in the Niles finals, and were the third member of the MSC champion alliance in 2010. After Crevolution won Waterford as the third member of the alliance, 2851 seeded 5th at Troy and picked the 6th seed, last year’s rookie sensation, 3539. All four of these teams should be around the elimination picture, and could play a key role in how events unfold Saturday afternoon.
Despite qualifying before, this will be the first time that 107 attends MSC.
RUSH and the Fighting Pi are the two biggest names in Michigan who have yet to take home a MSC championship (the Huskie Brigade half of 51 won it in 2009). 27 will likely be a stronger Chairman’s competitor than they will on the field, but that doesn’t mean they won’t leave their mark with their effective fender scoring. 1718 will have to overcome their elimination round demons that have haunted them. One of the pair may face an early exit, but the other could make a run on the right alliance.
There will be no lack of teams capable of draining shots in Ypsilanti. 1023 is quietly having an incredible season, with a 34-4 record over two district victories. Bedford paired with 3322 to win Livonia, who defeated their Kettering alliance partners and two-time finalist 862, at the event. Eagle Imperium’s key shooting and Lightning Robotics rough and tumble fender presence will both be factors as well, but they’ll likely play more of a complimentary role in the eliminations rather than acting as the primary scoring machine. Despite a down season for their standards, 217 is improving and if they step once more could be a huge player at the event. 1918 didn’t have theirs strongest event at Troy, but if they rebound to their earlier season form they could contend. The Killer Bees “stinger” provides them a weapon to help contend with HOT and Las Guerillas, giving 33 an edge over many of the other scoring teams at the event.
The most threatening team to HOT is also the team that won two events with, Las Guerillas. 469 can light it up from the fender and the key and are a fast and reliable triple balancing machine. If you’re the #1 selection at three events, it’s incredibly impressive. If you win all three events, it’s even more impressive. If all three are in Michigan, it means you’re going to be one of the best teams in FRC that season. If the Guerillas aren’t on the same alliance as HOT, expect them to clash with them in the finals.
*FiM data excludes Gull Lake district.
