Probabilistic Scoring Models

I used a website called Guestimate to run through simulations of how this game will work out. By the numbers, it looks very well balanced! The links are below. Feel free to copy the models if you want to save edits to them. I’m looking for feedback on errors, better layout, and how to do something similar in Google Sheets. I know my scouts can enter data into Sheets without issues - yet this site may be a little trickier.

I am sorry some of the outputs are scrambled. The site doesn’t do complex organisation very well.

Sample inputs:
“11 in 12” - gives a distribution for a probability, but can be based upon how many matches a team does something (like climb)
“4 to 6” - gives a distribution between two numbers, where in some simulations it will be 4, the majority 5, and sometimes 6
“0.45 - 0.75” - this one would be the accuracy. No one ever has the same accuracy match-to-match. Be honest, don’t put your max.
“60” - you can also put simple numbers into the cells.

Why it’s valuable:
For an individual “Robot Value” or “Estimated Score” cell, hover over the cell, click the gear and select “sensitivity”. This will display green graphs and correlation numbers that show how much an input correlates to the active ‘sensitivity’ cell. This helps to determine whether or not it is more valuable to spend time (e.g.) making a shooter more accurate or trying to make a bigger hopper.

Here is the alliance model:

  • Adjust the values in the 3 left-most columns for the individual robots on an alliance.
  • Note that individual robot values do not
    account for the ‘free’ 40-point rotor, but the alliance score does.
  • Be patient! This is a lot of javascript interacting with a lot of processing power in “the cloud”, running 1000’s of simulations at once. It is slow because there are many permutations to calculate!
  • If the page loads and contains red cells (errors) after a few minutes, reload the page. See the bullet before this one.

Here is the individual robot model:
Adjust the single robot column. It may be useful for scouting, or not.