I have just updated to v10.2.
Changes since v10.1:
Added overrides sheet
Added a status box that appears during data update which includes current process and warnings
Removed “Warn me when I am using an outdated version of the event simulator” setting from the settings tab
Deleted “team match array” sheet
Here’s my update for Chezy Champs. Biggest change is the addition of the ability to override my predictions to see hypothetical scenarios! I think it’s pretty cool and powerful. It’s still new though, so do your best to break it and give me bug reports :). I’m also open to UI changes on it or elsewhere in my book if anyone has suggestions.
I’m going to use 4607 at IRI as a case study to show some different ways you can use the override ability:
Okay, so, let’s pretend that it’s Friday night at IRI. 4607 is currently ranked ninth with 19 total RPs. Here are the default projections for their 3 remaining matches according to my simulator:
||Complete Rocket RP Probability
||HAB Docking RP Probability
Their ranking probability distribution using these values looks like this:
So roughly we expect them to seed between 7 and 30. This is good info, but now with overrides, we can explore some hypotheticals to dive into the possibilities even more.
We’re going to work from the worst case scenario up to the best case scenario for 4607. So let’s start with the absolute worst case, that they get 0 RPs on Saturday. To set this, I just set their win probabilities and RP probabilities to 0% for each of their matches. Here’s their resulting distribution in that case:
Ouch, that’s pretty bad, they are expected to rank between 39th and 45th. Note that even though we have complete certainty about 4607’s RPs in this hypothetical, there are still unknowns for the remaining teams, which is why there is still a spread of possible ranks for 4607.
Okay, let’s get a little more optimistic. Let’s say that instead of getting a guaranteed 0 RPs, 4607 instead suffered some serious damage in their last match of Friday that they don’t think can be fixed on Saturday. To simulate this, we’re going to drop all of their win probabilities and RP probabilities down by 10%. Here is the resulting distribution:
Drastically better than the 0RP case, but not good compared to the default case. Their expected rank is now between roughly 9 and 34, and the average rank has shifted from around 18 to around 22.
Let’s flip that scenario though, what if 4607 just fixed an issue with their intake that will make them much better the next day all around. To simulate this, we’ll add 10% to all of the default probabilities. Here is that distribution:
Wow! Now their expected rank is between 6 and 23, with a hefty chunk in the top 15.
Here’s another good option for 4607, what if they win all 3 of their Sat matches, but the RP probabilities stay the same? Here’s what that would look like:
Nice, that would give them a pretty thin spread between ranks 5 and 14, and an all but guaranteed top 15 slot.
Finally, here’s the absolute best case for 4607, what if they get all 12 RPs on Sat? Here’s the result:
If they got all 12 RPs, they lock in a top 8 spot, with a highly probable top 4 slot, and even a sliver of hope for the 1 seed. Had they actually gotten 12 RPs, that would have set them at 31 RPs, which would have given them the third seed at IRI if all other results had stayed the same.
One last hypothetical, what if 4607 knew exactly which RPs they would win and lose the next day on Friday night? Setting the actual Sat results in the override section and simulating from qm 70 gives the following:
So 4607 could have landed anywhere from 17th to 23rd just based on the results from other teams (they actually ended up 20th).
Well that’s about it, I think overrides are super cool. If you want to enter my chezy champs ranking projection contest using the overrides (after the schedule comes out) feel free! I’m hoping this tool removes some of the overhead for entry into contests like this.