Sykes Event Simulator 2020

This workbook is a tool which can be used to simulate upcoming or live 2020 events, or to calculate statistics for completed events. Data is pulled from the TBA API in the “Data Import” sheet. Explanations for how to use each sheet can be found in the “instructions and FAQ” sheet.

You can download it from GitHub here:
Sykes Event Simulator 2020

As of today, it is missing a lot of the functionality I had at the end of last year. I have hidden the non-functional sheets, so everything visible should be fully functional. I’ve done a fair bit of testing, but there are always bugs, so if you come across one don’t hesitate to reach out. My goal is to add as much as possible this weekend for use in week 1 comps, and to have all features running and tested before week 2 events begin.

Here are the threads from my simulators from previous years if you are curious:

You can also find direct downloads of prior year simulators in the linked GitHub repository.


Here is a direct download for the initial release:

Couple of things I should mention:
Elos are preliminary, the formula will change after week 1 based on the winning margin standard deviation. The current value I’m using from the week 0 competition looks like it will be far lower than the actual week 1 WM stdev, which means Elos will be more “jumpy” or “noisy” this week than they probably should be. 1690’s Elo will probably be in the mid 1800s after that update and not in the mid 1900s as it appears right now.
ILSs are seeded rather poorly, as again all I had to go off of was week 0 data where no bonus RPs were scored, these will also change after all week 1 results come in.
I did my best to validate, but it’s difficult to validate things like stage 2 and stage 3 activation since these have never occurred in the datasets that are currently available. I’d encourage people to check for weird things on their own, and to report back to me if any values appear erroneous.
I have metrics for inner goal efficiency in teleop, auto, and total. I’d be interested in seeing how well those correlate with actual scouted data, so if anyone has those feel free to share. I’m also open to other ideas for how to determine inner goal accuracy.

Well, I’m going to sleep now, I’ve got tomorrow off work so I’m aiming to get ranking projections done by the evening, I have a spotty record of hitting my estimated deadlines though, so don’t be counting on anything :wink:


Here is v0.6:

Changes since v0.5:
Calculated contributions are now calculated (but still hidden)
Removed a Windows-only dependancy, which means running on Mac might work now possibly?
Added Rankings sheet
Added Settings sheet
Added Predicted Rankings Sheet
Miscellaneous Code Cleanup

Next up are team lookup, match lookup, and images tabs. Those will likely be out tomorrow.


Currently getting this when trying ORORE (clackamas)

Limiting it to a known number that has match results (14) still gives the same error.

Looking in “data import” I originally thought it was because all the headers are wrong (all reference 2019) but looking in v0.5 it has the same things, and trying ORORE right now in v0.5 works without issue.

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Thanks for posting, I just noticed this error as well. Currently investigating. In the meantime people can still use v0.5 in the archive folder.

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Alright, here’s v0.7:

Changes since v0.6:
Fixed a bug that would cause teams not to be imported
Updated headers in the “Data Import” sheet for 2020
Added back in the Windows dependency removed in v0.6

I blame Apple users, I try my best to accommodate you guys and it breaks stuff for the rest of us.

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Update to v0.8:

Changes since v0.7:
Added Images sheet
Fixed a bug that would cause data not to import if a team scored 0 total points
Hopefully fixed the external links error messages that appear when opening this book

onosh q 2 blue alliance scored 0 points, which caused no match data to be imported for that alliance. This should now be fixed.

I was also getting annoying error messages every time I launched my prior workbooks:

Not getting these anymore, but not sure what I did to fix them. If any of you see these in the future let me know and I’ll try to get rid of them. I did change some of my excel settings so maybe that was sufficient for me.

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Updated to v0.10:

Changes since v0.8:
Added Team Lookup sheet
Added Match Lookup sheet

All that’s left are schedule strengths, overrides, and continuous metrics. I’ll have these ready by week 2, unsure if they’ll happen within the next day or two, as I still want to make an inner goal scouting assistant and I also have to try my Zebra parser.


Updated to v0.12:

Changes since v0.10:
Took another attempt at fixing the error that appears on first opening, not confident it’s actually fixed though so if you are still getting it let me know
Added Overrides sheet
Added strength of schedule sheet
Added Full-Event Graphs sheet

I think this is my last v0 update. I’ll be updating to v1 soon which will have much better seeds since we actually have real match data to base the seeds on instead of the poor-quality week 0 data. Still hunting the error, hoping I solved it here but not confident.

Here’s some graphs of 4539 from Great Northern because I think they are cool:


Updated for week 1:

Changes since v0.12:
Updated Elo calculations to use the standard deviation of week 1 winning margins instead of week 0 winning margins
Updated Seed Values with better base seeds for teams that haven’t competed yet
Updated seed values with data through week 1
Miscellaneous Formatting changes

Updated to v1.4:

Changes since v1.1:
Miscellaneous Small Formatting Changes
Now throws an error if SOS is run when simulations are set to 0
Took another crack at solving the error seen on opening
Added a warning if simulateEvent is run while other workbooks are open

I think I finally hunted down the annoying error seen on initial opening. Let me know if you still get it.

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When i attempt to use the data input screen i get the following error message

This looks like an Apple OS, is that correct? I don’t currently support Excel on Apple. I’ll try again eventually, but the last time I did it just broke everything.

Updated to v2.2:

Changes since v1.4:
Updated seed values through Bosphorous
Fixed the “level With 1+ Hangs” metric, was previously not handling red matches properly. Also renamed to “level With Any Hangs”
Replaced “placeholder 1” with a “level And Hanging Rate”, which is found by counting the matches in which there is both a level rung and the given team is hanging.
I don’t know if/when events will start up again, so I’ve changed the “outdated version” warning to reflect this.

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Updated to v2020.2.3:

Changes since v2020.2.2:
Fixed a bug that made custom events break, thanks to @pchild for the bug report
Clarified the out-of-date warning to say March 2020 instead of just March

I know this update is coming out in 2021, but I would classify this as a bug fix to the 2020 simulator rather than the development of a 2021 simulator. All values in the simulator are still from mid-season 2020, and direct imports of 2021 off-seasons will not work, only custom events. I’ll try to get going on a proper 2021 simulator/database soon, including updating Elos and calculated contributions as best as I can.