[TBA Blog] 1114 Is FRC's Greatest Dynasty

I might give it a shot, but I don’t think the specific function I use will help things out much, as I tried both a “Elo change maximum” and a logarithm approach in the linked thread and both were similarly unsuccessful.

I think the broader issue is that the amount of “information” that we can take away from blowout matches varies drastically depending on the game. For example, in 2018 blowouts might not tell you as much because the positive feedback loops in the game design made them “easier” to achieve. In 2017 in contrast, it was much harder to get blowout victories due to the diminishing point return for scoring gears, so the fact that an alliance destroyed another alliance is actually a pretty useful data point that you probably don’t want to give less weight than you give to tighter victories.

The best solution would obviously be to have the Elo calculation method vary between years depending on game specific features, but I’m not there yet.

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This is an interesting way to look at these charts, finding the year which is in the most ranges for each team. We can think of this as a “dynasty making” year. Here are the dynasty making years for teams with at least 5 entries:
1114: 2008 (63/72)
254: 2015 (18/26)
2056: 2012 (19/20)
233: 2004 or 2005 (17/19)
469: 2010 (5/5)

254’s dynasty looks to be the least “centered” of these by a solid margin.

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Sometime in the next few days.

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Here’s a similar book that uses end of season Elos:

I made it public to let people fill in colors if they want (although if you do you should also add them here)

Here’s a private sheet in case someone screws up the public one:

I do think I like end of season Elos better than average elos for the single year ranges. Still not sure about the multi-year ranges, but I guess they should be better if the single year ranges are better. Maxes are probably the best though.

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