Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Comparison
By CALEB SYKES
Introduction
Hello everyone, I’m happy to make my inaugural post on TBA Blog. Recently, I’ve noticed that much of my work in my Miscellaneous Statistics Projects thread has essentially become a blog. What I mean by that is that I spend a lot of time writing and editing these posts and was in a sense breaking the “forum” style of CD since I make well over half the posts in those threads. I also wanted more formatting tools at my disposal, so I decided to write in a blog. The plan for now is for me to use this platform for some of my thoughts which would otherwise go on CD. I appreciate feedback, so if you have any thoughts or suggestions on what I can improve in this format, please let me know. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Background
A few weeks ago, I hosted the Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest. I’ve done match prediction contests before, but with my new ability to project ranks before events start, I thought it might be fun to see how my ranking projections stack up to others’. Ian H won that contest, but Ari was kind enough to share a full probability distribution for each team to achieve each rank, so I wanted to compare my ranking distributions against Ari’s to hopefully identify weaknesses in my event simulator. I’ve uploaded a book titled “CC Ranking Comparison” to CD which does this. In addition to Ari’s predictions and my predictions, I’ve added a baseline set of predictions under the name “Ignoramus”. These predictions simply predict that every team has a 1/42 chance of achieving every rank.
Check out the the rest of the article here: https://blog.thebluealliance.com/2018/12/17/chezy-champs-ranking-projection-comparison/