The California DCMP: 2023

FIRST General Forum
1

As a follow-up to this thread from 2019, and an extension of @jaredhk’s thread here, I thought it would be a fun thought experiment to look into what the California DCMP would look like while we’re all (im)patiently waiting for Champs divisions to release. So, sit back, close your eyes, and picture yourself in the magical land of “Four Years from Now :tm:.”

To start with, I assume that this event would have to be either in the Los Angeles or Bay areas. In the interest of fairness, I’ve decided that it should be hosted at a venue equally inconvenient for everyone: Cal Poly SLO. San Luis Obispo is roughly equidistant from all of CA’s major population centers, has no suitable space to host an event of this size, and probably doesn’t have adequate hotel capacity. Perfect!

Speaking of the event size, most DCMPs host roughly 30-40% of the teams in the district, and I have landed on two 50-team divisions as a fair number given our team count. This means that 37% of California’s 270 teams would be in attendance. Division announcements would have gone out last week, showing the following teams in each division:

Shoreline Team List

4
8
100
115
192
294
581
597
599
649
687
846
968
972
973
1148
1323
1671
2073
2102
2429
2485
2584
2659
3128
3256
3473
4123
4159
4322
4414
4415
5026
5104
5171
5199
5274
5419
5458
5507
5924
5940
6036
6220
6995
8016
8404
8768
8793
9271

Redwood Team List

114
254
399
604
668
670
696
766
971
1072
1138
1160
1351
1388
1538
1622
1678
1868
2551
2637
2813
2839
3255
3476
3512
3647
3669
3749
3859
3970
4014
4135
4201
4255
4276
4419
4738
5089
5851
6560
6657
7137
7157
7447
8033
8048
9038
9084
9125
9143

Using Cheesy Arena’s 50 team/10 match schedule*, quals matches were assigned as follows:

Shoreline Quals
# Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3
qm1 3128 5026 1148 100 8 2485
qm2 5104 5274 4159 4322 5924 968
qm3 6220 4415 4414 5940 5419 599
qm4 9271 115 8016 8768 4 1323
qm5 972 4123 846 6995 2073 597
qm6 8404 6036 5199 687 3473 973
qm7 1671 294 192 649 2584 5171
qm8 5507 2659 5458 581 3256 2429
qm9 2102 9271 597 8793 8 968
qm10 846 1148 2485 599 4415 4159
qm11 2584 5199 5924 972 973 8404
qm12 4123 5274 100 8768 649 5104
qm13 115 2073 3256 1671 5940 687
qm14 3473 5507 5419 192 5458 8016
qm15 2429 8793 294 6995 4322 4414
qm16 4 6220 2659 2102 6036 3128
qm17 5026 5171 968 581 1323 649
qm18 192 846 3473 5924 4415 9271
qm19 5199 4123 2429 4414 2584 2485
qm20 2659 8 973 5274 8016 2073
qm21 8404 597 5940 1148 5104 6220
qm22 5171 8793 115 972 100 5419
qm23 1323 4159 3256 294 2102 581
qm24 8768 6995 599 5026 6036 5507
qm25 1671 5458 4322 4 3128 687
qm26 968 5419 8404 846 2659 100
qm27 3473 8793 1323 1148 294 2073
qm28 2584 9271 973 4415 649 6995
qm29 5458 6220 4123 1671 8 115
qm30 2485 5507 687 5274 4 972
qm31 192 5924 5940 5026 8768 2429
qm32 597 6036 8016 581 3128 4414
qm33 599 5104 4322 5199 5171 3256
qm34 4159 8404 6995 2102 1671 5419
qm35 8793 5026 100 6220 2584 687
qm36 581 846 4 1148 4123 973
qm37 597 192 972 3256 294 599
qm38 115 5199 5274 6036 4159 9271
qm39 8768 2485 3473 2659 5104 4414
qm40 4415 3128 968 5171 2073 5507
qm41 5940 2429 4322 8 8016 1323
qm42 5924 649 1148 5458 2102 5199
qm43 4414 5419 846 4 5026 3256
qm44 100 6036 973 2485 9271 294
qm45 968 192 2659 4123 6995 115
qm46 972 5104 687 8 2102 2429
qm47 8016 8768 1671 8793 4322 4415
qm48 649 6220 599 2073 581 5924
qm49 3128 5507 2584 3473 4159 5940
qm50 1323 5171 597 5274 5458 8404
qm51 4414 1148 2429 1671 973 968
qm52 2102 100 2073 6036 192 4322
qm53 5104 581 8 115 294 5419
qm54 972 3128 5199 4415 1323 4123
qm55 599 5458 9271 8404 2584 5026
qm56 687 5171 5274 5940 8016 846
qm57 3256 3473 6995 6220 5924 2485
qm58 4159 5507 649 8793 2659 597
qm59 8768 5199 2073 4 5419 5458
qm60 294 4414 5026 4123 8404 8016
qm61 2102 6995 5274 115 599 3128
qm62 5104 1323 973 5507 192 6220
qm63 2485 6036 5940 8793 5924 1671
qm64 2659 3256 687 5171 9271 1148
qm65 8768 968 581 2584 8 3473
qm66 4415 2429 4 597 100 4159
qm67 4322 972 6220 846 649 5458
qm68 687 5924 5419 3128 1323 294
qm69 4414 2073 1671 9271 5104 5507
qm70 581 6995 2659 100 5199 5940
qm71 4123 4 8793 599 3473 5274
qm72 4159 115 4322 973 597 5026
qm73 2102 8016 2485 846 968 2584
qm74 8768 1148 6036 5171 972 2429
qm75 4415 8 8404 192 3256 649
qm76 599 1323 5026 3473 1671 2659
qm77 5940 6220 294 968 9271 5199
qm78 8016 100 4414 5458 972 4159
qm79 2584 192 5419 4322 1148 5274
qm80 8 4 5171 5507 6995 5924
qm81 3256 2102 973 3128 4123 8768
qm82 649 2073 8404 2429 2485 115
qm83 5104 846 4415 6036 8793 581
qm84 687 192 5199 597 5924 4414
Redwood Quals
# Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3
qm1 1622 254 3669 1351 9038 399
qm2 1538 6560 2637 8048 2813 5851
qm3 1138 7137 604 2551 2839 114
qm4 7447 9084 4255 3647 4014 668
qm5 3749 9125 696 3512 7157 8033
qm6 971 3255 4738 4276 5089 4419
qm7 1868 670 4201 4135 1072 3476
qm8 1678 3970 6657 3859 9143 1160
qm9 1388 7447 8033 766 9038 5851
qm10 696 3669 399 114 7137 2637
qm11 1072 4738 2813 3749 4419 971
qm12 9125 6560 1351 3647 4135 1538
qm13 9084 7157 9143 1868 2551 4276
qm14 5089 1678 2839 4201 6657 4255
qm15 1160 766 670 3512 8048 604
qm16 4014 1138 3970 1388 3255 1622
qm17 254 3476 5851 3859 668 4135
qm18 4201 696 5089 2813 7137 7447
qm19 4738 9125 1160 604 1072 399
qm20 3970 9038 4419 6560 4255 7157
qm21 971 8033 2551 3669 1538 1138
qm22 3476 766 9084 3749 1351 2839
qm23 668 2637 9143 670 1388 3859
qm24 3647 3512 114 254 3255 1678
qm25 1868 6657 8048 4014 1622 4276
qm26 5851 2839 971 696 3970 1351
qm27 5089 766 668 3669 670 7157
qm28 1072 7447 4419 7137 4135 3512
qm29 6657 1138 9125 1868 9038 9084
qm30 399 1678 4276 6560 4014 3749
qm31 4201 2813 2551 254 3647 1160
qm32 8033 3255 4255 3859 1622 604
qm33 114 1538 8048 4738 3476 9143
qm34 2637 971 3512 1388 1868 2839
qm35 766 254 1351 1138 1072 4276
qm36 3859 696 4014 3669 9125 4419
qm37 8033 4201 3749 9143 670 114
qm38 9084 4738 6560 3255 2637 7447
qm39 3647 399 5089 3970 1538 604
qm40 7137 1622 5851 3476 7157 1678
qm41 2551 1160 8048 9038 4255 668
qm42 2813 4135 3669 6657 1388 4738
qm43 604 2839 696 4014 254 9143
qm44 1351 3255 4419 399 7447 670
qm45 5851 4201 3970 9125 3512 9084
qm46 3749 1538 4276 9038 1388 1160
qm47 4255 3647 1868 766 8048 7137
qm48 4135 1138 114 7157 3859 2813
qm49 1622 1678 1072 5089 2637 2551
qm50 668 3476 8033 6560 6657 971
qm51 604 3669 1160 1868 4419 5851
qm52 1388 1351 7157 3255 4201 8048
qm53 1538 3859 9038 9084 670 2839
qm54 3749 1622 4738 7137 668 9125
qm55 114 6657 7447 971 1072 254
qm56 4276 3476 6560 2551 4255 696
qm57 9143 5089 3512 1138 2813 399
qm58 2637 1678 4135 766 3970 8033
qm59 3647 4738 7157 4014 2839 6657
qm60 670 604 254 9125 971 4255
qm61 1388 3512 6560 9084 114 1622
qm62 1538 668 4419 1678 4201 1138
qm63 399 3255 2551 766 2813 1868
qm64 3970 9143 4276 3476 7447 3669
qm65 3647 5851 3859 1072 9038 5089
qm66 7137 1160 4014 8033 1351 2637
qm67 8048 3749 1138 696 4135 6657
qm68 4276 2813 2839 1622 668 670
qm69 604 7157 1868 7447 1538 1678
qm70 3859 3512 3970 1351 4738 2551
qm71 9125 4014 766 114 5089 6560
qm72 2637 9084 8048 4419 8033 254
qm73 1388 4255 399 696 5851 1072
qm74 3647 3669 3255 3476 3749 1160
qm75 7137 9038 971 4201 9143 4135
qm76 114 668 254 5089 1868 3970
qm77 2551 1138 670 5851 7447 4738
qm78 4255 1351 604 6657 3749 2637
qm79 1072 4201 2839 8048 3669 6560
qm80 9038 4014 3476 1678 3512 2813
qm81 9143 1388 4419 1622 9125 3647
qm82 4135 7157 971 1160 399 9084
qm83 1538 696 7137 3255 766 3859
qm84 4276 4201 4738 8033 2813 604

Thanks to a huge assist from @Strategos, we can see how quals might play out, along with the charts, simulated ranks, and SOS data that we’ve all come to love about Statbotics.
Statbotics - Shoreline
Statbotics - Redwood

After 84 hard-fought quals matches, the ranks finish out as follows:

Ranks - Both Fields
Rank Shoreline Redwood
1 1323 254
2 6036 7157
3 5940 8033
4 4414 1678
5 581 971
6 973 3255
7 4415 604
8 5199 4255
9 5419 6560
10 972 3512
11 2659 1351
12 5507 3647
13 649 3669
14 5026 1622
15 1671 4738
16 687 3476
17 115 1868
18 2485 1388
19 5458 9084
20 599 114
21 2073 670
22 846 1538
23 4322 3970
24 294 8048
25 5171 4201
26 4123 5851
27 597 2839
28 6995 2813
29 1148 2551
30 8793 3859
31 8 7447
32 5274 4419
33 5104 766
34 8404 9143
35 5924 2637
36 8768 3749
37 3473 4135
38 3128 1160
39 100 1072
40 2584 4276
41 2429 5089
42 192 668
43 2102 9125
44 4 9038
45 4159 7137
46 968 6657
47 8016 1138
48 6220 399
49 9271 4014
50 3256 696

Thanks to the whims of the schedule and the strength of the teams, 7157 and 8033 pull way up in the ranks on Redwood ahead of 1678 for the 2nd and 3rd ranks, looking to cause some upsets in elims. 581 pulls a rough schedule on Shoreline but fights through it to hold onto 5th rank. 254 and 1323 hold the top spots on their respective fields. Blue and black robots apparently remain dominant.

Alliance selection goes off with no declines on either field because they’re hard to simulate and the alliances heading into division elims look like this:

Shoreline
image

Redwood
image

Division Elims are not without drama, unsurprising given the amount of firepower on the field in California.

Shoreline Elims:

image
image603×789 69.1 KB

Google sheets RNG has a problem with alliance 4, who is upset in a 1-2 punch by alliances 5 and then 8. These were somehow the only upsets that my spreadsheet put in Shoreline, despite being favored to win both matches, which makes it seem like it was personal. I promise I didn’t do this manually.

Redwood Elims:

image
image612×789 73.3 KB

The biggest upset of the event happens in Match 7 as a botched fork climb from 1678, a hybrid cone poking out over the tape line, and a critical few extra game pieces from 1538 and 3255 allows the 4th alliance to take a win over the 1st alliance. The two meet again in Match 13, where this time the perennial powerhouses take the win, moving on to also win the division against a high scoring alliance of 7157, 971, and 9125.

The two winning alliances take to Leon Field to determine who wears the California Crown.
image
The Shoreline champs take the first match by a narrow margin after a missed auto mobility from 9143, but penalties give the win to Redwood in full grid matches 2 and 3.

After the dust settles, banners are awarded, and selfies are taken, district points can be doled out. (Side note: pretty sure DCMP points are 3x normal event points. Is this true?)
The final champs invite list looks like this:

List By Point Totals
254 302
1678 298
1323 297
5940 269
4414 259
971 254
7157 239
4415 237
6036 231
1538 206
8033 195
581 193
5274 184
2659 173
9143 173
5419 170
972 169
5199 169
973 168
604 168
3255 167
4255 166
1388 160
115 157
1868 154
1148 153
3476 153
1351 150
687 149
9084 148
5026 147
6560 147
114 144
4738 141
1671 139
3512 139
599 132
2073 132
5507 129
9125 127
2551 125
5851 125
2485 123
3647 123
3970 123
649 121
4123 121
100 120
294 118
4322 117
List by Team Numbers

100
114
115
254
294
581
599
604
649
687
971
972
973
1148
1323
1351
1388
1538
1671
1678
1868
2073
2485
2551
2659
3255
3476
3512
3647
3970
4123
4255
4322
4414
4415
4738
5026
5199
5274
5419
5507
5851
5940
6036
6560
7157
8033
9084
9125
9143

I’m going to leave this thought exercise for now, and I hope you enjoyed it. I’m happy to discuss what the district could look like in Four Years :tm:, how I did anything presented here, or how unrealistic it is that 8793 didn’t get drafted. I definitely made some mistakes in here from rules misunderstandings to shoddy spreadsheet work. I’ll fix whatever errors are easy to fix as I find them.

* apparently teams at DCMP are supposed to get 12 matches? I didn’t read that until way too late.

84 Likes
2

3512 Ranked 10 in Redwood, with the interpicking happening in the division, how did they miss elims?

5 Likes
3

:man_facepalming:

image
image1258×629 50.1 KB

Because I forgot to lock the range in my formula.

The alliances should look like this:
image

Shoreline was unaffected by this.

I won’t redo the whole bracket, but this essentially shuffles alliances 7 and 8, trading 3669 for 3512. Good catch.

8 Likes
4

At the Israeli dcmp there were 11 quals per team.

1 Like
5

Also, what’s the big deal with having a California district? Not from NA so I’m missing something here

6

4481 would like to request California does not go to districts (unless we can buy in)

27 Likes
7

Quite a few teams want one, as of yet it hasn’t happened. It’s become an in-joke because of how many times people have tried to get it and it hasn’t happened.

To the original topic, this is a really fun thought experiment, ty for running it!

5 Likes
8

Is the fate for 1323 and 254 is to never meet in the same division?

4 Likes
9

Oh great, now I want a division simulator on statbotics where you can build a custom division from your own random team list and simulate results…

7 Likes
10

At this point it seems more likely that FIRST goes to a universal points model sooner than California goes districts.

I’d prefer districts and a state champs, but getting a more equitable path to qualifying without having to “build the wall” is nice.

22 Likes
11

I think this is the key concern. Michigan had a similar one, basically having to kick Ontario and Indiana out, back in the day. Both became their own Districts but we miss playing those teams pre-CMP every year.

California is different (Doh!) in many ways, but mostly because of the much larger distances that out-of-state teams regularly travel to play at your Regionals. Probably many of those teams come from areas that would not soon become Districts after California does.

7 Likes
12

I’m not sure how many CA teams would additionally qualify via culture awards. Or what CA’s “district” slot allocation might be in this hypothetical situation. Your list has 50 slots. I did some quick counting:

CA has 62 teams registered for champs this year (10% of 620 teams attending)
Your list of 50 has 28 teams that are already going.
You list “qualifies” 22 more teams that didn’t make it this year.
Not on your list are 30 teams that are attending.

I don’t have time this AM to look in more detail at awards, 2nd picks etc. But it is interesting!

13

Mans really gonna host California District Champs in my backyard have me rank 10th and not even let me play in elims, that’s harsh bro :joy:

20 Likes
14

Next year, man. The spreadsheet will be fixed by then.

15

It was payback for…

checks notes

Turing 2018 QFs, I guess? Yeah, that. I’m holding a very specific grudge and am not bad at spreadsheets.

The spreadsheet is 2 days old and already a disaster. I wouldn’t hold my breath for next year.

13 Likes
16

Fair and valid.

In retaliation I won’t share any of my favorite central coast taco spots.

3 Likes
17

What about rotating the location of the event to the northern and southern part of California every other year? Not surprised there isn’t a big arena in the middle of the state to a hold an event this size.

1 Like
18

Nah, I’m perfectly happy with a hypothetical California District Champs being 40 minutes away from me :wink:

1 Like
19

Aren’t any good ones anyway

6 Likes
20

Bro, you couldn’t be more wrong. Come on Adam, I expected better from you.