@Brandon_L and I have been maintaing a website - frclocks.com - that calculates which districts teams are a “mathematical lock” to advance to their District Championships. This algorithm is not a probabilisitic model - teams that it says are a “lock” to qualify for the District Championship are guaranteed to qualify.
Over the years we’ve receive many questions about how this calculation works, and now that the 2024 season is about to begin we’re publishing a paper to explain it.
Let us know if there is anything in the paper that needs clarifying, or if you have any questions/feedback/comments at all!
District_Points_Analysis__Mathematical_Locks_for_Advancement.pdf (109.5 KB)
