A half-decent defense team can just sit in front of the trench. A very good defense team can shut down the trench and follow you around to shut you down all through out the match. Defense will be a big factor with match play.
Considering you can have cameras on the bot, and lasers can be used for short durations, I dont think so. Besides, it’s only like 50 feet away.
This is a very optimistic assessment of how impactful defense will be. There is enough open space between the Loading Zone and the Trench that it will be hard to stop a robot from getting from one protected zone to the other. It will be even harder to shut down a team “all throughout the match”.
There are enough protected zones and enough open space between them to limit the impact that defense can have on this game. A great defender can slow a great offensive robot, but certainly can’t shut that team down throughout the match.
There will also be opportunity to evade or block the bot playing the “block the run” game. If two bots are cycling feed station, especially a trench running bot and a long shooter, the first guy either stops the defender by blocking inside, or pushing them to the wall , the second guy loads, hits the defender and the second bot goes to the safe zone to load. Defense, as always, will slow cycle times, but I have a hard time seeing anything “shut down”. There will be tremendous strategic variety in this game though.
If our long shot is near 60% we would consider using it due to the short cycle. We would expect 80% from the safe target side part of the trench, and 100% if undefended in open space near the target. Those are 2 pt %, and we would expect some of those to be 3’s from the open or target side safe zone. We want all three capabilities so we can adapt to what our partners can do. I am not confident at all yet about the long shot for us.
Is the OP assertion that 0.1% of teams will make 60% of their 2 point shots from the far side of the Trench? That seems very low. 3’s, I would agree with entirely
I think The DJ Booth Shot for 2pts will be valuable enough to win events on at ~40% with a good cleanup bot, by creating sheer ball volume on the far end of the court.
In Northern California*, I expect 1-3 teams per event at >60%, and an additional 6-8 teams at >40%. I expect those 1-3 to pick each other or settle for a >40% fullcourt in the first round, and then that >60% bot to go play cleanup at the far end with their >90% camera-guided 3pt shot (from around the initiation line, far trench, etc) while the >40% bot feeds them.
Ideally that captain would round out with triple-O and take a third cleanup bot that also shoots high at the far end and frees up the captain to do work anywhere; we’ll see that at champs, but I doubt more than 20 teams (~35-40% of the field) at Regionals will have solid high shots, and we’ll see lowgoalers making that third slot… or even captaining the 5-8 alliance slots on their climb (& dj??) RP, after the top 4 finish picking each other.
(I will not be surprised to see a really well-executed Everybot get a captain slot on climb/disco RP, and end up having to run a scorched-earth picklist before grabbing a high goal shooter from outside the top 8 captains & first few picks)
*NorCal is hella stacked at the top & may not reflect your local competition conditions
I think this is the correct number of teams who will be capable of shooting full court. I think that few of the teams that are capable of shooting full court will actually shoot full court through most of the match. Since you have to move from the loading zone you can’t just continually feed balls and shoot like in 2013. For this reason doing a full cycle will not be much slower than doing a “half cycle”. Secondly, in 2013 there was a protected full court shot zone. This year, full court shots will be highly susceptible to defense.
A big factor in the inaccuracy of these long-ranged shots is most likely the wear of the ball pieces. Newer balls verses those that have been shot by other robots multiple times will result in different in-flight characteristics.
I think everyone sees the value of being able to make that shot; I’m unconvinced that a lot of people appreciate the difficulty of pulling it off.
My guess is that 1-3 robots per regional/district event is really optimistic—I’m leaning toward the 0.1% or less number myself. There will be teams that can do it, but I think there will be a lot more teams that tried to do it and settled for something less.
This shot is way, way harder than the Ultimate Ascent full-court shot.
[Edit: and if I’m wrong and the percentage of teams that pull it off is well higher than I predict, that’ll be awesome.]
I think 1-3 robots per regional event is about right for that accuracy level. I’m also pretty sure I could predict now which teams from the regionals my team plans to attend will pull it off.
I think lots more teams are trying it and designing for it though. I’m expecting lots of power cells on the floor for clean-up bots even at the eliminations level at my team’s regionals.
We’ve shot a lot of balls from behind the control panel distance and learned one universal truth - the long shot is extremely hard this year.
If you shoot the ball too hard for a line drive type shot, your balls bounce back out of the goal. Too soft and they don’t make it or don’t have the consistent trajectory to go into the goal.
I think you may see 1 or 2 teams at an event that can do it with any regularity and they might be 50% at best. Passed a certain point these balls just do what they want to in the air.
Then they leave the middle open. Nothing says a trench bot can’t go through there.
To answer the OP’s question.
With ball deterioration it will be very few maybe 2 or 3 and event at best.
Do you have a third shooting wheel to control backspin or topspin?
I’ve already replied to this but I feel compelled to do so again. I may not be perfectly skilled at predicting the way games will play out but I have seen a few of them, and I heartily disagree that there will be 2-3 robots per event (or less) capable of making more than half of their 2-point shots from a distance of 35 feet. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe that this shot is very “make-able”.
- The target is a vertical opening
- It’s one of the largest targets in the past 15 years
- The balls are relatively small, relatively consistent, and relatively tough
- Hooded shooters, providing backspin, are a design understood by many teams now, and will alleviate many of the pitfalls teams are concerned about (balls bouncing out of the goal, balls going to random locations)
- The amount of power that is readily available to provide a consistent and relatively rapid shot of five balls is greater than ever before, with NEOs and Falcons everywhere
- There ain’t no bag no more
I don’t mean to be Pollyanna, but I’m expecting more like 4-8 robots capable of making this shot at early events, and for it to be prolific late in the season. I am not convinced that capable defense won’t be able to shut down the shooting lane, but that’s a different issue.
One issue I see with long shot bot… the FC’s eventually will all be on other end of the field and they will starve themselves of new FC quickly.
I call this situation “winning”.
Once this happens, any decent long shooter will blitz the far side of the field and use all those Power Cells to create a feedback loop. That’s a great “problem” to have.
I think of it as 1/4 or at most 1/3. Approximately 1/3 the total distance, no rockin’ sockin’ robot defense action on the way through the generator area / subway grate, taking the shot from a protected zone… a good team will be able to do it in ~1/3 the time, so anything over 33% nets out positively for the alliance.
I say zero %. Even if teams can make the shot the majority of their shots >50% will not be that far back.