This post will be quite long, but if you’re interested in the statistical side of strategy, and how fuel will play a part in future weeks, it might be worth the read.
The Southern Cross Regional was a great display of fuel scoring in play. With 4613 “Barker Redbacks” scoring the 40kPa bonus in 8 of their qualifying matches, it was a great view of high-level fuel scoring in the 2017 season. This may have been our first demonstration of high-level fuel play of the season.
I’ve done some analysis on the Southern Cross Regional, and found that fuel scoring is in kind of a mixed bag. Out of all their matches, fuel only determined the outcome of TWO qualifying matches (Q21/25), and ONE playoff match (Finals 1). In this particular case, although the pressure bonus was present in a lot of matches, it didn’t affect the Win/Lose/Tie outcome of many at all. Keep in mind, however, that the pressure bonus grants an additional Ranking Point. Without the pressure bonus, 4613 would NOT have become the first seed, instead coming second. 8 other alliance pairs would have also been reorganised due to fuel ranking points.
Out of all Alliance Selections in 2017 (up to now, 15 March, Week 3), there have been 57 cases (2.8% of alliance pairs) where Alliances would be in different order if not for fuel ranking points (e.g. #1 would be #2 or less if they did not score fuel RP). Counting only the #1 Alliance losing their top seed, this drops to only 2 cases (one in Southern Cross, one in Israel District Event #3). Doing the same Alliance Selection analysis for Rotor Points, 57 cases were also identified where Alliances would be in different order if not for rotor ranking points. It should be noted, however, that rotors account for an insanely large portion of the match score, so this isn’t really a fair comparison.
So, does fuel matter? It depends on where your priorities are. Fuel doesn’t have a big impact on the final score of your match, only in very isolated cases does it affect the outcome of the match (2.8% of matches). However, it does seem to have a difference during qualifications on the rankings, but still in isolated cases (2.8% of alliance pairs, or close to 30% at southern cross). You can take the risk of losing the match for a single ranking point, or play it safe and cycle gears for a potential 2 rankings points (or 3 if you get 4 rotors), or somewhere in-between.
It seems so far, that the team has to make a judgement call. Can the other alliance cycle gears and score more rotors than your alliance? If so, your best option might just be to minimize your losses and go for 40kPa so you still get a ranking point. If not, or you’re unsure, you’re statistically better off running gears.
As the season progresses, and we see higher levels of play, fuel ranking points may seem more common. But as of right now, unless the other 2 robots on your alliance are capable of scoring 3+ rotors, it doesn’t seem that fuel RP is worth the risk.
The full score breakdown of the Southern Cross Regional is available below.