Top Seed Regional Success Rate Poll

With the much anticipated debut of Looking Forward’s Predictions for Week 1 (Amazing as always :slight_smile: ), and great pics/vids from some of the elite teams, dominant robots are the talk of the forums. But will these elite teams actually be able to control the Lunacy?

The best metric I can think of for determining the dominance of individual teams is the success of top seed alliances. If a team is truly dominant they should be able to seed #1 and win the regional. Even if they don’t seed #1 often they are picked by #1 (although they sometimes decline). Last year was a great year for top seeds, winning 54% of the regionals.

I really don’t think this is a good game for dominant robots for reasons I will detail later in this post. In fact I will go so far as to predict that top seeds will win less than 40% of the regionals (very low, but might as well make a bold prediction :wink: ) Now I’ve told you my prediction, so vote in the poll to make your own prediction (not a private poll so put your good name behind your prediction) and share your thoughts in posts. Note: Poll should expire Friday of Week 2 so gets your votes in early

Reasons I think this is not a game for dominate teams:

-Robot auto scoring will be down
As Car Nack predicted, I expect very little robot auto scoring this year and there is very little incentive for it. A good auto this year is one where the opposing Payload Specialists don’t score on you too much (the rest is just minor bonuses). Unlike last year where teams like Simbot could score more in automode than many alliances could score in the entire match (if they even scored any points after all the G22 penalties were deducted :rolleyes: )

-Many similar robot capabilities
The rules are very restrictive (bumper perimeter, wheels) so it is difficult to engineer anything special to give your bot an edge. Also, each team starts with only 20 Moon Rocks, and in order to get more you need to get them from allies or the floor. I think it will be difficult for the elite few to push themselves very far above the level of a simple effective dumper bot.

-The serpent has some venom
The serpentine alliance selection (I’m a big supporter, not criticizing) could make a major impact as your alliance may only be as good as its weakest link. Even with good scouting, the last overall pick may be a liability. A low seed, well rounded, cooperative alliance could be the best alliance. Good strategy and changes in strategy can win games (anecdote: a change in strategy won a qual match at championship last year that I had previously labeled a sure loss against an all regional winner alliance) Along with this point, random pairings in qualifying matches (despite an algorithm I expect to be the best we have seen) have a chance to make the path to #1 nearly impossible with lopsided matchups.

-Wild cards: Super Cells and Payload Specialists
Much ramps in 2007, Super Cells are major game changing element in the last 20 sec of a match. Unlike the ramps, Super Cells are less about your robot (a kitbot can retrieve Empty Cells) and more about your Payload Specialist. I think some robots will score them at higher accuracy than humans but nothing will be 100%, increasing to the luck element of the game. Plus, G14 taketh the Super Cells from the rich and giveth the poor an advantage (unlike serpentine draft, I dislike this rule)

Am I saying that 1114, 1024, 217, 111, 71 and 16 will be shutout of the Midwest finals, 25 nor 103 will win Jersey, and 254 will not win SVR (not week 1, but relevant)? NO!:ahh: Better robots are still more likely to win (wouldn’t be much of a robot competition otherwise). Additionally these elite teams are the complete package with great strategy, scouting and comp teams.

What I am saying is that no robot is unbeatable in this game and I expect plenty of upsets. Going undefeated for any stretch of time will be exceedingly difficult (unlike '08 and '06). There will be more upsets of the top seed alliance.

The lower ranked teams have more drive to knock off the #1 alliance in my mind. When your ranked #1 you have a giant red X on your back for all the other alliance to aim for, they will try to beat you, and beat you big (maybe not so much this year, however). The underdog always wants it more :p.

At a regional with a deep ‘middle class’, like a Midwest, New Hampshire, Florida, GTR being a 3rd to 6th alliance captain is going to be a disadvantage. Most of those regionals have 4-5 top level teams, lets take GTR as an example, the top teams will likely be 1114, 2056, 1126 with one or more of the ‘upper middle class’ performing like a top level team 1503, 188, 610, 2166, (hopefully my rookie team can perform in this level 2809). Then there is the rest of the ‘middle class’ 772, 771, 781, 865, 1006, 1075, 1141, 1246, 1305, 1334, 1547, and new entries into the middle class. I’m not saying these are all going to be the top teams at GTR, just speculation based on history, many of these teams will surprise us and many will disappoint.

So from that list you already have 20-22 teams, if you are an upper middle class team and have the 6th-8th seed, and don’t get chosen in one of the top two alliances it might be advantageous to hold on to your picking position. I predict that simple dumping bots are going to prove to be very effective in this first week, and with a lower seed its very possible at a deeper regional to get two dumping bots with a 6th-8th seed. Having 3 scoring robots against a top alliance with only 2 scoring bots could, with the right strategy, prove to be dangerous.

Any seed alliance that can score with with least resistance up against their attacks will win the match. If the 1st seed is the alliance with three robots can ALWAYS score and ALWAYS score big…then they will have their victory. #2-8 seeds must prevent the ‘always’ in order to take their own victory.

It all depends on the robots that make up #1 seeds. I usually put my money on #2-4 seeds to have a better chance at victory then #1.

Judging by the Week 1 results I (and most of poll participants) have quite a wide margin to makeup. In Week 1, 75% (6/8) of the Regionals (including Traverse City MI District Event) were won by the #1 alliance.

Additionally, I expected very few teams to go undefeated but instead there are 2 teams that went 13-0 over the weekend. Interestingly enough, these teams are an original team, 45 and a rookie, 2753.

Despite the overall results, thus weekend wasn’t without it share of upsets. Most notable of which it the pairing of 2 of the most dominant teams ever, 71 & 1114, seeding 1 & 2, forming a dream alliance, and then being upset in the QF of the Midwest Regional. Last week if you told anyone that would happen, they would assume you were joking, but anything can happen in this game.

The other upset was the #4 (I think that is what they were after the redraft) alliance of 121 175 & 2621 beating #1 in the semis and winning at BAE. Since both of these regionals are very competitive, it sets a precedence that the more competitive regionals will be more likely for upset. This is not entirely surprising, but I expected the less competitive regionals that rely more on payload specialist scoring to be more ripe for upset.

I attended the DC regional so it is the only one I watched. When 2377 lost the last match of the day and their shot at #1 seed it was clear that the alliance of 45 and 234 would form. Although it was a competitive regional, no other alliance was poised to give them much of a challenge. In fact the #2 - #4 alliances all were upset in the QF.

It is only Week 1, and the results can all change as teams figure out how to play the game. Last year the #1 seed won 80% (4/5) of Week 1 regionals and the final number was 54%. This year it is 75% in Week 1 and could very well drop below 40% when all is said and done. Everyone still has till Friday morning to vote in this poll.

Regionals are over so here are the results:

		#1 Alliance Won	
All Events	50.00%				
FiM		75.00%
Not FiM		45.00%
>50 teams	40.91%
<=50		57.69% 

So looks like I was wrong:o . All those people who picked 50% - 60% win. I guess those people with 40%- 50% could make a case that they have 50% as well. They also could say district events aren’t regionals and thus 45% is correct. I’m only correct (<40%) if you look at >50 team regionals not MSC: 38.09%.

So since I’m already wrong I’m going double or nothing with another prediction:
Only a single #1 alliance will advance to Einstein. It’s Lunacy!:smiley:
(2 #1s advanced last year)

Spreadsheet is attached with more analysis. Tell me if I have any errors. I collected seed data by looking at the alliance brackets on TBA.

I’d like to think we will see a middle alliance on the big stage and a 8th seed on there also.