How often during Week 1 qualification matches will the scale go unused, with neither alliance successfully scoring a cube?
POWER CUBES get placed, not scored.
Placing cubes on the SCALE does not earn bonus RPs, nor does it rank high on the tiebreak criteria lists for match outcome or seeding.
I expect early week qual matches to focus on SWITCH OWNERSHIP, the VAULT, AUTO QUEST, and FACE THE BOSS.
Even so, any team physically able to score at scale will try to place at least one cube, to get the points and to get the practice in. I predict that the scale will go unused in under 50% of week one matches.
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I am in the minority; I think scaling will be * attempted* maybe in one out of three matches, and successfully used in less than 10%. Week one? Robots that move and don’t tip over usually are competitive. If they can get on the platform consistently it’ll be more than the majority of robots can do most of the time.
The scale seems such a focus of this game, sitting there at center field and representing the clearest inter-alliance battle zone…
In a recent CD thread about robot types, there were strong indications most robots will include scale placing capabilities. I can’t imagine many matches without at least one cube on at least one side of the scale. If the more pessimistic (realistic?) folks are right & many matches will have no scale activity because of tipped robots & such, then it is going to be insane to watch this game in early weeks. In the immortal words of Captain Kirk, “Buckle Up”.
CD also tends to represent the higher performing FRC teams, and isint really a good baseline for all team’s bots.
The problem is that CD users tend to be towards the upper half of teams. Any CD poll needs to be taken with that grain of salt with respect to team abilities.
Let’s face it, there will be some matches that are won or lost on the switch battle, and some that are won or lost on the powerups, and in both cases a significant fraction will be because the Scale isn’t in play for some reason–robot design, breakdowns including tipping over, or just plain missing placements.
I put 10-20% because while I believe the Scale is strategically vital, and most teams are designing around it, a lot of teams will realize their mechanisms aren’t where they need to be. In those 10-20% of matches I would expect the Scale to be attempted in virtually all of them. If you’re not attempting the Scale, you’re literally putting yourself in up to a 270 point hole.
Just the sheer number of teams that (in many cases unwisely) targeted the Scale should keep this percentage fairly low. The number of matches where it won’t be attempted by either side will be few and far between.
I’m blown away at the disparity in estimates regarding the Scale. Guesses ranging from being attempted every third match to being successful in most matches… somebody on one side of the spectrum or the other is going to be very surprised come week 0.
For no cubes to get on the scale in a match implies all 6 robots do not have that functionality.
So rough translation:
>70% unused scales = 1 or 2 robots per event putting a cube on the scale
~50% unused scales = ~10% of the robots using the scale
~20% unused scales = 20% to 25% of the robots using the scale
~10% unused scales = ~33% of the robots using the scale
~5% unused scales = ~40% of the robots using the scale
I have trouble believing that less than 2 out 5 teams won’t show up to week one without the capability to place at least one cube in the scale per match.
When your robot doesn’t move on the field, or your top-heavy robot tips over early in the match from flying full force into the switch during autonomous, it doesn’t matter if you designed for the scale, you won’t be putting cubes in the scale during that match.
Same table assuming 1 robot is dead every match (Using 5 robots instead of 6):
>70% scale unused = 1 or 2 robots per event using the scale
~50% scale unused = 10% to 15% robots using the scale
~20% scale unused = 25% to 30% robots using the scale
~10% scale unused = 35% to 40% robots using the scale
~5% scale unused = 45% to 50% robots using the scale
I’ll be expecting between 2 and 10 robots per event that can place one or more cubes on the scale in every match that they play. So I guess, between 50%-70% of week one matches will not have a single cube on the scale.
Look, I’d love to be proven wrong. The scale is kind of the equivalent of the top level in LogoMotion. Any stats available on how many matches had zero tubes scored on the top level in week one of 2011? I recall elimination matches week four with no top level scoring. If we see 30% of robots able to actually place a cube on the scale in every match they play in qualification rounds week one this year, I think it will mean that FRC has improved enormously in terms of teams’ abilities to solve the game and manufacture (or assemble) effective drive bases and components over the last half decade. That would be a great thing.
My guess is that as a whole, the average team will be better than in 2011. The two biggest problems in 2011 was acquiring game pieces and lifting it in a controlled manner. PID is used way more than it was in 2011 and I personally think grabbing the cubes is easier than grabbing inner tubes. Robot in 3 days/MCC/Everybot also weren’t a thing in 2011.
I love how the poll results are a quite lovely normal distribution! 
Right? The distribution started really nice, then was bimodal, and now it’s back to nice again.
Since this is about Week 1, I expect teams to have lots of trouble, like they did last year with placing gears. Teams quickly solved the problem and Week 2 was much better through collective learning.
If any 1 robot can use the scale (ESPEICSLLY IF ONLY 1), it will definitely go used. 25%. At least 75% of matches will have at least one robot capable of placing a single cube in the scale.
Looks like it took about 33 matches before there was a match without a scale ownership point.
Every match at Great Northern so far have been fights to hold scale. I am very shocked with the ability of a few robots to be able to stack cubes on the scale.
I think quite a few matches are decided by how fast you can get and hold onto your switch. If you can get it near the start of autonomous and hold it throughout the match, you have a good chance of winning.