I’ve done some scripting and pulled some data from TheBlueAlliance and put it into some math.

Out of all matches played at this time (end of week 1), Fouls have accounted for 4.55% of the total score.

Furthermore, in Auto and Teleop, Rotors have accounted for 60.51% and 54.02% respectively.

Takeoff (climbing) points have accounted for 45% of the final Teleop Score.

High Fuel has accounted for 0.73% in Teleop and 1.92% in Auto. Low Fuel is even more dire at 0.05% in Teleop and 0.08% in Auto.

There have been 14 occurrences (0.76% of matches) where fuel points have decided the outcome of the match.

EDIT: Including cases where fuel turns the game into a tie, or a tie into a win, fuel has decided 48 cases (2.61% of matches). For fouls, this is 134 matches (7.28% of matches).

Update: 70 matches (3.8%) have been decided by foul points. Including foul points pushing to a tie, or from a tie to a win, this is 134 matches (7.28% of matches).

I’m sure this will change as the season goes on… teams will become better at avoiding fouls and more teams will demonstrate some success at scoring balls. But even late in the season, there will be MANY teams (>70% of teams with a fuel mechanism) that designed and built fuel mechanisms but don’t score more than 20kpa of fuel at any single event.

Scoring meaningful points with fuel is extremely difficult. The shooting challenge by itself is difficult… I’ll say there are two major technical challenges, 1) physical shooter accuracy and 2) targeting the goal, but then there’s the fact that each shot is worth so little that you need a tremendous volume of balls to make it worthwhile - and gathering and shooting these balls takes up significant match time! This is the element that has never been harder than it is in this game. The necessary “flow rate” of balls presents several more technical challenges: 3) harvesting/receiving a large volume of balls, 4) storing a large volume of balls (30-60+), 5) indexing/singulating that large volume of balls without jams, 6) indexing/singluating FAST so that you can feed your hungry shooter, and 7) keeping your shooter accurate at high feed rate.

Even if teams accomplish 6 of these 7 shooter characteristics, not having that last one makes shooting inadequate for regular, successful use… particularly when you don’t yet have 3 rotors… and then if you can do 3 rotors easily, the 4th rotor can start to look pretty good… particularly in elims when you get the 100pt bonus that nearly guarantees victory!

Do you have anything on matches where fuel could have decided a match? This would include ties or matches within 6 points or so (11 if you wanna be generous).

Fuel turning something into a tie or breaking a tie is fuel deciding a match. I’d turn all those inequalities into equal-or-greater/lesser (with something to keep out ties that remained ties). I’d wager most times fuel made a difference, the no-fuel score was tied.

Folks need to think long term about scoring. As the level of play increase, balls are going to become more important. At a certain point in the season, getting 3-4 rotors will be common place. The only way to separate the teams will be auto and ball points.

Let’s let the season develope and see where this leads. If Steamworks can survive the field issues, it has a lot of depth in play to offer.

I should have mentioned that by ‘decided the outcome’ in the beginning, I meant flipping the outcome from a definite loss to a definite win (i.e. without referring to tiebreakers in either case). This has been added in the root post.

My team 1018 Robodevils was in the finals of the Tippecanoe regional in West Lafayette, IN and we tied our first match because our alliance went all in on gears and so did the other. We realized this and one of our alliance teammates 234 Cyberblue was able to get a couple points in the low goal. Although fuel only a gives a small percentage of points compared to gears, fuel can decide a match and it did as we went on the win the event

If I’m down by fouls or mobility, I need an extra point to win. I figure 18 balls high (making up one such 5 point deficit) from an above average shooter is about the max to qualify a match as “could have been decided by fuel”.

What would the percentages look like if there were no endgame (e.g. everyone scores the same amount of climb points every match)? If climbs were worth half as much as they are now?