Week one guesses on game score

Will we this season see a max score?

Second question how many game pieces will the average robot score?

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Yes.
Average robot? 3.5 game pieces.

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Adjusting for outliers the average individual robot in week 1 will score 3-4 game pieces, mostly cubes.

Yes we’ll see the max score this season

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“average” bot 2, any decent team should be scoring 3-4, I would hope good teams could score 6 or 7.

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I think we will see some very high scores at the Northern Lights Regional in Duluth, MN. The event has multiple teams that have been on Einstein such as 2052, 2512, and 2826 and many other powerhouse teams like 525, 2502, and 2987. Even some qualification matches will have high scores especially if there’s a match with 2052, 525, and 2502 on the same alliance.

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we will definitely see a field maxed out, but i don’t think we will see a truly “max” score, due to some game pieces being scored in teleop that could theoretically have been scored in auto.

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The first event this season includes some of the best teams in Israel: 1574, 1577, 1690, 2630
I expect to see pretty high scores by these teams already at the first event of the season.
I think good teams will pass the 10 game pieces in 1 match at the start of the season

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I think the max score will happen when there’s a stack-up at a competition with einstein-level teams.

Average? 3

Good teams? 7-8

Top teams? 10+

Einstein captains/first picks? solo link rp (4 link version) aka 12

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This for max score. Bold prediction: 3 gamepieces in auto + 8 in teleop is the max in week 1. We won’t see 20+ gamepieces for an alliance in week 1. Highest score of week 1 will be at Hueneme Port.

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I think people are overestimating the average robot Week 1, but are pretty close on the max individual effort for week 1. History tells us there are going to be many robots that fail to score game pieces, unfortunately.

Week 1 Average Robot: 1.5 game pieces
Week 1 Avg Winning Capt/1st Pick: 7 game pieces
Week 1 Max individual effort : 12 game pieces

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I agree with this except I don’t see how you do 12 individual game pieces. IMO too much distance to cover for any single robot.

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Assuming we are counting 2-3 in auton this makes sense.

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Yes, but even with auto I see this more improbable. You would need a robot going about 22 feet a sec to get to 12.

I am not rooting against it, I just don’t see this in normal game play. In a legitimate match where your are playing robots that can do something I see 12 by one bot being a super rare feat if possible at all.

Are they sacrificing going on the bridge? After the game pieces preset on the floor are gone it’s about 90- 100 feet per cycle.

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Given that there are only a set number of places and game pieces you can score, I would say that yes, we will achieve the maximum field score numerous times. The fact that they are more egregious with penalty points shows that they were very much paying attention to the max score threshold.

For week 1, however, I would see probably 3-4 game pieces per robot at least.

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I went over some Week 1 events in a cursory search for high-Elo alliances to see who might get Week 1 high scores. Michigan has a couple events with really strong teams that, if on an alliance together, would totally stomp district opponents. Here are my alliances, generated by guesswork and Sykes Elo data:

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This year I feel like average # of game pieces scored doesn’t paint a very good picture of robot ability. If a team is averaging 5 teleop game pieces per match, but they’re all low, they are only contributing 15 points. If another team is doing 5 high, they’re contributing 30 points.

With that said, I’d like to think the floor for most teams will be around 2.5 game pieces low per match (for robots that are attempting to score, not playing defense).

I’ll say your average team is around 2-3 game pieces mid (6-14 points)

Top teams at most events will be averaging 5-7 high (30-45 points).

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Add in South Florida to that group

Alliance: 179, 180, 4206
Average Elo: 1748

Looking at 2022 and 2019 average week 1 scores were 38 and 41. I think both of these games follow the scoring patterns of this game pretty closely. So my bet is 40 for a whole alliance.

On average:
80% of robots get mobility: 2.4 points
2 game pieces scored in auto: 8 points (using the mid node to split the difference)
30% of matches have an auto dock: 2.4 points
20% of matches have an auto engage: 2.4 points
5% of matches have 1 robot docked: 0.3 points
25% of matches have 2 robots docked: 3 points
5% of matches have 3 robots docked: 0.9 points
10% of matches have 1 robot engaged: 1 point
15% of matches have 2 robots engaged: 1.5 points
1% of matches have 3 robots engaged: 0.3 points

This gets me to 22.2 points of my average. So I need to get 17.8 points from game pieces in teleop (including links). The average point value in teleop is 4.3. So if each robot scores 1 game piece on average that is 12.9 and that completes a link getting me to 17.9. And an average score of 40.1.

People are really overestimating the average team for comparison in week 1’s previous years:
2019: Alliances averaged 9.35 game pieces scored the whole match (2.91 Hatches and 6.44 Cargo) meaning robots were only averaging 3.1 game pieces a match. Which is twice as much as i am giving them here however 2019 was the 2nd pick and place game in a row, not after a 3 year gap and a global pandemic. 2019 also did not require full field cycles, had a less congested game piece acquisition area, and had 50% more “low” scoring areas thanks to the cargo ship and low rocket areas.

2022: Alliances scored 8.5 cargo on average meaning 2.83 cargo per robot. However once again this is a game that did not require full field cycling, was the 2nd shooting game in a row (with a much more forgiving game piece). and you could hold twice as many game pieces at a time.

I always hope I am wrong but I don’t think I am this time. The addition of a high point value task in auto (dock/engage) may boost the points up slightly but I am sticking to my guns of:

Week 1:
40 points
Average robot scores: 1.6 game pieces.

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I can see someone like 1678 scoring (once during the event):

  • 3 game pieces in auto
  • 2 additional game pieces at the beginning of teleop from their staging marks
  • 3 game pieces snagged from the opponent’s staging marks
  • 2 game pieces scored from partner/opponent drops
  • 2 full field cycles

or some combination thereof. Staging mark cycles and drops reduce the travel time per cycle significantly when they’re available (although they’ll be much less important at higher levels of play)

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Hueneme port has 3 einstein and a couple other top houston teams, I’m pretty sure there will be a game with 2 really good 10+ capable teams

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If i compare it to week 1 in 2019, i think 1678 with 1323 scored 23 gamepieces in there highest scoring match. they were undefended and cycles were significantly faster in that game. This year you can slow down 2 robots with 1 defender if you do it well. That makes me think it will be close but 20 is a lot.

That said, if 1678 will team up with 973 and 4414 (or 3 other powerhouses) in quallification we will see 20+ but thats rare.

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