What kind of economic impact does robotics participation have on a community?

Competition Off-Season Events
1

Do robotics teams and skill programs have an economic effect on an area? This will be the topic of an economic roundtable discussion, slated for 12:30 p.m. July 22, 2017 at Lapeer West Center for Innovation, 170 Millville Rd., Lapeer.

Hear from Ken Morris, Vice President of Global Product Integrity at General Motors, and Tony Diodato, founder and Chief Technology Officer of Lapeer’s Cypress Integration Solutions and the Lapeer Robotics program advisor.
There is no cost to attend the discussion, which takes place during the ROBO-CON Festival of Robotics & STEM Learning.

  • What: Discussion on whether robotics teams and skills programs have an economic impact
  • Where: Lapeer West Center for Innovation, 170 Millville Rd., Lapeer
  • When: Discussion at 12:30 p.m. July 22; ROBO-CON Festival happens 10 a.m.-4 p.m. July 22
  • Details: www.MiRoboCon.com

Note: This is useful information when approaching prospective sponsors and local business representatives. If you’re in or near Michigan, plan to bring your team leaders. This happens July 22 in Lapeer, during the ROBO-CON Festival of Robotics & STEM Learning (but away from the festival noise).

2

This looks like a great presentation and would be very useful for me in Arkansas. Any chance it will be recorded and posted somewhere? I will be with my team in China on that day or I would seriously consider driving up!

  • Meredith
3

Hi Meredith, that’s a great idea–thanks for mentioning it. I will see if we have anyone available to record it–if so, we will post it on our ROBO-CON website at www.MiRoboCon.com.

4

Look at the fifth vertical box, the one on the far right side, on the following chart.
http://kellrobotics.org/files/model/SLF_Model_for_web.pdf

This particular analysis is based on several assumptions/observations.

  1. having a FIRST team available at a school will double the production of Engineering and Technologists that will finish a post-secondary degree.

  2. I forgot what exact numbers I used for the salary deltas, between T&E grads and non-T&E grads, but it formed the basis of the salary marginal effects.

  3. the gross salary differential, or marginal effect for each annual graduating cohort was calculated, then the number doubled to arrive that the primary and secondary economic effects.

  4. and we had a team in every school.

The bottom line is that the total social benefit of FIRST in Georgia, IF a team was in every school, would be $ 1 B / year, accumulated each year for about 40 years. After adjusting for time cost of money, and back tracking discount rates, it is roughly a NPV or net present value of $ 40 B, in Georgia.

The number that was on the chart (above) was based on a $ 50M / year expenditure and a $ 1 B annual return. which is a 20:1 CBA ratio.

You can have fun all day long building ‘CBA’ models (cost benefit analysis) models, and if you can achieve the 2x improvement in technology, engineering, computer science post-secondary production rates, then the CBA is crazy good, even with the most pessimistic investments put against the most pessimistic returns.

It is interesting to run a simple spreadsheet analysis and estimate the effects. You don’t even have to get near effects like effects on manufacturing, or crime and welfare, and anything else to get to a good CBA estimate.

I’m working on a new model to support the case of spending $ 7.5M / year on K-12 team material and extended day pay, with the same the annual benefit could get you $ 1 B /year. That would be a 133:1 ROI ratio. Even if I mis-estimated by a factor of 10, that would still be 13:1 ROI, which is still great.

5

Did you also assume that the future population of the community is equal to the high school graduates it produced over the preceding years/decades? That E&T fields will be human capital limited, rather than investment/opportunity limited? If not, what did you assume?

6

Maybe I’m crazy, but what college grad, especially in STEM, is going back to their hometown? The nice thing about job security is pickiness- picking places with lower cost of living, higher incomes, or other factors.

Sure I’d love to come back to the farm, but that’s if I get some business model off the ground that works there or I find a company around there- which is a lot less dense. I’m definitely not coming back to mid-cost-of-living, high-tax, regulatory captured Illinois.

7

Depends on the area and career your seeking. I know my brother still lives near the town we grew up in but that’s because he works for GM and southeast Michigan is kinda a big deal for them.

I’ve bounced around the country over the last few years ultimately settling into a role that is 100% remote.

In short, it depends on your goals. Money isn’t everything. Some people value being around family as important, others love the weather where they grew up. Idk, to each their own.

8

ThaddeusMaximus,

I think you hit one nail on the head, and highlighted something important. “community” is a slippery concept.

Ed,

The relationships you mentioned would sound way over-simplified, and would sound way too optimistic, to me, if I were in your audience; but I’m not in your audience. :wink:

Elizabeth,

I think you just might find that robotics teams ship a lot of money, and young talent out of many (smaller / low-tech) communities; but that might be exactly OK.

I think that voters want to spend those $ because they are interested in their childrens’ futures, and (to a much lesser extent) because they see themselves as part of a larger national/regional/global community.

I think you might also find that a strong STEM educational system helps communities attract and retain, families and businesses. Boards of Directors and CEOs looking for a place to plant or expand a business of any sort, want happy, talented employees. Strong educational systems are a big part of attracting those employees, and of keeping them happy.

When a business is looking to expand/start, if STEM programs tip the scales in favor of one community over another, the “winning” community then gets a big, long-term return on their investment in students’ futures.

A smart community will be sure to be a good place to rear children, and will tout that whenever they get a chance.

Blake

9

I love the comments here–thank you for weighing in.

This discussion will be a (quieter) part of our ROBO-CON Festival in Lapeer, Michigan on July 22 (festival details: www.MiRoboCon.com).

Our panelists will field audience questions, and we are currently coming up with a list of seed questions to get the conversation started, so please, continue to comment!

10

The model I presented is a very simple model to test simple assumptions. Constant population… Yes, human capital is the limit, but there are issues regarding realignment of human capital, especially as AI takes over some jobs.

But even with the simple model presented, you could multiply the cost 10x and divide the benefits by 10, and the answer is still YES, we need to support informal STEM learning. A solid community that supports STEM, in and out of school, will out-produce a community that fails to stay competitive in providing livable STEM supportive communities for prospective businesses.

11

Perhaps it’s just because of where I live, but I find that constant population is a terrible assumption, not even approximately true. I estimate that about 10% of the population of Slidell over the age 30 grew up here; many moved out, many more moved in. I moved in, and I fully expect my sons and daughter to move out. Having a robotics team or similar is a great long term investment in the students, not necessarily the community.

The economic impact of an FRC team or similar program on the **community **is more immediate!  The key is to get professionals and skilled workers to move in faster than they move out.  Where do people with good jobs live?  Within the commuting range of their job, to begin with.  Within commuting range, most people select their home based on the living conditions, which includes the quality of the local schools/community centers and the opportunities and programs offered at them.  If your community or school has these sorts of programs, you'll draw those mobile professionals and skilled workers in; if you're one of the places without them, they'll be drawn away.
12

Excellent comments.

A/The big problem with STEM education, in general, is the levels (federal, state, district, school) of jurisdictions, and the overlapping jurisdictions and laws and policies. Everyone owns the problem, and no one owns the problem.

If the unit of analysis is ‘local community’ then that becomes an interesting problem of getting all the community leaders (formal, informal, corporate, educational, etc) on board with a vision of Happytown. Tree lined streets, coffee shops, STEM CLCs (community learning centers), easy parking, good schools, local universities, all the rest. That is the community 21st Century STEM families want to live in. Throw in the beach, mountains, hiking, cycling paths, arts, entertainment, etc if you have them. This should be easier to pull off in a small town than a large town. Maybe a bedroom community to a large metro area.

The model we have been working on are statewide models with strong state-district linkages. At that level, the population is much more stable. Yes, we lose a lot of people, that go to places like Georgia Tech, then off to California, but we also have a big influx of talent into the state. I don’t know the net balance but I don’t see any indication of a negative trend statewide.

If you could convince the local leaders with build Happytown with strong STEM livability, how do we keep the kids “on the farm?”. Here is an option- if the student could return and become a fun STEM teacher in a local school, you would definitely have a chance to keep the STEM-oriented student in town. But the local district and community have to commit to supporting school STEM teachers and programs, in order to gain that teacher. If they don’t provide the support, the STEMist teacher can go to the next town where they are welcome. The scale of STEM support goes from (reject, tolerate, neutral, welcome, fully embrace). ( I just gave this speech last week to an area begging for teachers. If they want the STEM teachers, they have to show the STEM love )

13

Very much an option for those called to teach. About than half the adults in Slidell I know who grew up in Slidell work as teachers or otherwise for the school board.