What percentage of regional/district events will be won by the #1 seeded alliance?
- <50%
- 50-54%
- 55-59%
- 60-64%
- 65-69%
- 70-74%
- 75-79%
- 80-84%
- 85%+
0 voters
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The 1 seed is at a disadvantage when it comes to their third robot’s ability to climb… but should generally have an advantage in climb balancing and cycling. I don’t believe this year will be a particularly challenging year for the top seeds.
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<50% and >70% are both very bold considering we haven’t seen those in the last 10 years.
I’m going with 55-59%. I think this game is roughly an average of the 2012, 2013, and 2016 games.
I think there’s a correlated question “Which numbered alliance will most frequently lose in the finals?”
There’s going to be a band in the serpentine where you won’t have a buddy climb and your 3rd robot can’t climb.
I think the reason that so many people are voting for >70% is because they don’t understand how many events out there today don’t have any powerhouse teams, or at least teams that are clearly ahead of the pack.
Events with a more humble level of play will tend to have the number-1 ranked team be sort of chosen at random, based on luck with the qualification schedule. Top-ranked alliances at these events are susceptible to upsets, and there are more and more of these events out there with the proliferation of the district system and of FRC in general.
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Wasn’t 2017 < 50% per the chart above?
You are correct, I didn’t look closely enough at it and thought it was right at 50%.
This is obviously going to be alliance number 8.
I would be very surprised if there were enough climbing robots, especially at early events that there would be many left in the second round.
In my opinion, this question has less to do with serpentine effects and more to do with whether teams are rewarded for the same things in quals vs playoffs. The qual RP bonuses are for multiple climbs and for scoring a ton of balls. It’s straightforward that climbing is more valuable for quals than playoffs (but still quite good). The latter I’m less sure about. In 2016, achieving enough balls scored for the RP was worth extra points in playoffs, which helps make quals and playoffs more similar. That’s not true this year. So, to me the question is will there be top-ranked teams that got there by getting RP from scoring a lot of balls into the low goal, that will then struggle in playoffs because they’re not scoring high? Maybe.
I think it’ll be marginally below average this year, if only because the RPs don’t have associated point bonuses in playoffs.
2 Likes
My team went to a Texas district event and the real power house teams took control, the 1st and 2nd seeds ended up as the finalists. My team got picked by the 2nd seed and we lost by 1 point to the 1st seed, that darn G20.
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I don’t think this game will be too bad in regards to Alliance 1 steamrolling.
There isn’t much of a snowball aspect like 2018 (other than the flooding tactic), but to quote @Ryan_Swanson, the 1 seed will absolutely be at a disadvantage for having its weakest robot climb.
Alliance 8, on the other hand, will likely be composed of three “average” bots as usual, and depending on the competition week we could see all three of its bots climb (or none at all).
As well, with no more Stop Build, I think the gap between week 1 and week 6 will be much smaller, especially in regards to endgame climbing. So Alliance 1 wins will definitely not be as common in week 1, ie. weaker competitions in which only a handful of robots can climb.
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