Repost, since I messed up the first time.
By the end of week 2, what will be the highest average RP earned by any team?
I’m feeling pretty safe with 2.61-2.9.
Here’s my thought-process:
No team will regularly get 4 rotors spinning in quals - at least until DCMP. It may be several weeks before we see a single qual match that gets all 4 rotors spinning.
If a team plays 12 matches, 2.61-2.9 RP per match means they’ll end up with 32-34 RP. This represents missing only 2 to 4 RP. If they don’t get any rotor RP, that could be going 12-0, and getting 40kpa in 8 to 10 matches, or going 10-2 and getting 40kpa in every match (or anything in between). I expect at least a couple teams will do that in the first two weeks.
Consistency in every single match in weeks 1 and 2 is not easily attained!
EDIT:
In 2017 it appears that 21 teams got >2.9 RP at a week 1 or 2 event. I think the 40kpa is harder to get than the breach and the rotor RP is harder to get than the capture. Maybe someone will top 2.9RP, but I’m guessing not. We’ll see. 
I also chose 2.61-2.9. However, I do think there will be a few qual matches with all 4 rotors spinning. While I agree that it is only marginally possible for one robot to deliver 12 gears in a match, and that no team will be able to accomplish this consistently, I also think that there will be several stacked events in Weeks 1 and 2 in which several qual alliances are stacked with high-performing gearbots. Two good gearbots on the same alliance would only need to deliver 6 gears each. Three mediocre gearbots on the same alliance would only need to deliver 4 gears each. This still seems very hard, but definitely doable if the opposing alliance for some reason or another cannot play good defense.
I expect someone will get the fuel RP (nearly)by themselves and win every match. Highest average will be around 3. Definitely an outlier team though.
How many teams do you think will be able to do this? I don’t think it will be uncommon at all for a team to be able to do 40 kPa on their own. It won’t be everyone, but at least a few per event.
I would estimate maybe 0-2 per event the first few weeks. Certainly by the end of the season I think we’ll be seeing them, but early on I’d be it to be pretty uncommon. In my experience, people (and especially CD) overestimate how much teams will be capable of.
I do hope I’m wrong though, because seeing lots of robots with the ability to shoot balls super fast and accurate, both in teleop and auto, would be very cool to see early in the season. I expect to have to wait a little longer than two weeks for that, though.
Winning all matches is significantly harder than getting the fuel RP by yourself during a match. Remember - 40 kPa is only worth 40 points. For any chance of winning against mediocre to good opposition, your epic fuelbot will need to get within 1 rotorspin of the opposing alliance and hope it doesn’t get outclimbed in the endgame. This isn’t even factoring in defense. I don’t think an epic fuelbot can win all of its matches, and I predict that elite teams with both gear and fuel capabilities will prioritize winning their tough matches over getting to 40 kPa. This is the main reason that I chose something less than 3.
Every year, though, some teams blow me away with designs and strategies I had never considered. Perhaps some team out there right now is laughing at me knowing that their design can get 3+ rotors, 40 kPa, and a climb. We’ll see.
I’m very confident this is well within the reach of the elite teams… Probably not in every match at their first event (and maybe not on average at their first event), but it will be attained by the absolute best teams solo at their first event.
I think we will see quite a few alliances turning all 4 rotors. If you spread the gears out over all 3 teams, each team would only need to delivery a gear every 30 seconds during teleop. I even think that it won’t be uncommon to see alliance turn 4 rotors and score 40kPa with a 2-gearbot-1-fuelbot split. That would still be about a 24 second cycle time for each team.
Technology wise, it is not hard to meet these specification. Most teams (even rookie teams) will be able to build a static “gearage” that delivery gears at the necessary rate. And a low goal “dump truck” style design with 60-70 fuel capacity should be able to score 40kPa reliably.
You Sir are overly optimistic. Rookie teams often fail at simply driving, now add in driving across the field, retrieving a game piece, driving back across the field and place said game piece on a small diameter flexible peg. Your average rookie is going to do that 1 time a match. Your average veteran team is going to do that 3 times with no defense being played. 4 rotors in quals is going to be a rarity until later weeks.
At start of season, I would have thought about a little over 3 because their is bound to be a robot somewhere that goes undefeated and gets kpa bonus. Now, I think it will be around ~3.5. Most teams I know that are focusing on mostly gears seem to be able to get a surprising amount of cycles. I think most are underestimating just how many gears will be scored per match. The artificial boosting of the first gear value I think also made gear robots more desirable(120 to 160) as a design choice. Overall, I think at some event, a robot will go undefeated, get their kpa bonus each match, and get all four rotors spinning for half their matches.
This is about what I’m expecting. The right auto will be very important this year.
I expect there will just not be that many teams that get a consistent 40 ball auto every match in the first two weeks of the season. You guys are mixing up “maximum RP per match” and “average RP per match”.
I just don’t see this peaking much past 3. Gear RP is much harder than a capture last year; it straight up won’t happen at several events and it will not happen more than 2 or 3 times per qual schedule for even the very top teams in week 1-2, especially those focusing on ball scoring for the other RP.
I wouldn’t be too shocked to see average RP at district events actually go down a bit as the season goes on. There isn’t usually a lot of defense being played in qualification matches at early events (when teams are still trying out their offensive capabilities), and teleop scoring is particularly susceptible to defense this year. By the time district teams are playing their second events, many of the less effective scorers will realize that they can be more productive by preventing their opponents from scoring.
Average “high” RP - meaning taking the average of the highest RP across all events?
Presume 1 loss for the highest seed and 10 matches per event average --> 1.8 RP
If a ball bot is higher seed, I predict that bot will get the 40kPa bonus 66% of the time ==> 0.66 RP
If a gear bot is higher seed, I predict that bot will get the 40kPa bonus 22% of the time due to being paired with a 40kPa-capable ball bot 1/3 of the time. ==> 0.22 RP
Extra RP for Rotor Bonus I predict will happen once per Week 1/2 quals, or about 0.01 RP average.
Range: 2.03 - 2.47 RP. Choosing the higher poll option due to the amount of districts, where 1 loss means roughly 1.92 RP rather than 1.8 RP.
Yeah that’s another variable. If your bot is epic, you will have to worry about defense for the entire length of teleop. Being double or triple teamed, possibly. Defenders won’t just be the least offensively capable robots on the other alliance. There’s enough incentive for powerhouses to play defense too.
I don’t think the OP was asking for the average high RP - it was the high average RP. So the 1 seed’s average RP score.
I voted in the highest range. Here’s my reasoning: I think there will be some robots out there that can consistently get a fuel RP solo. I also think there will be some robots that can consistently score 7-8 gears solo in teleop. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for one of those dozen or so teams to have a favorable qual schedule with teams who can fill in the blanks to get the full 4RP, somewhere in the 48 events across first two weeks.
Side note: ten years ago, there were 38 official events total. Just. Wow.
Historically for the past few years (except 2015 ha!) defense has been at a minimum during qualification matches and then ramped up during Elims.
Not saying we won’t see it more this year, just that teams seem to try to maximize their RP potential rather than play defense. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see the same this year.
I absolutely agree that maximizing RP potential should be the main goal of qualification match strategy, at least for teams likely to seed high. I also think that this year, defense may be a big part of a valid strategy for maximizing RP potential in qualifications. If there were a CD poll asking us to predict the amount of defense this year on a scale from 2015 to 2007, I’d wager 2007+.
I think I would actually be surprised if average RP went down as the season goes on. One thing I predict is that teams’ shooters will become more dialed in as the season progresses. Dialed in shooters mean teams shooting more often, and more fuel RP. This might offset the dip in RP that may happen from defense becoming more common.
As in most years, defense will be minimized during qualifications and maximized during elims. Most teams want to show what they can do offensively during quals, and will only resort to defense the last couple matches of qualifications if it is apparent that their offense isn’t good enough to get picked. Therefore, I believe there will be a fair number of gear ranking points early in quals.
This game will be played very differently in eliminations than it is in qualifications.
My .02