Let’s get your predictions in early so we can all see how wrong we were later.
What will average/good/elite (50/95/99%ile) teams average in terms of high goal balls per match?
… and why do you not need to gear faster than 10 fps (adjusted, not free) for most teams?
Average: 3 balls a match (2 cycles and one shot misses)
Good: 8 balls a match (4 cycles)
Elite: 12 balls a match (6 cycles)
Ooh, this is a very game piece anemic game this year, so that’s gonna make this fun.
For the average teams, I would say typically 1-2 balls during auto. One preload and one pick-up and shoot. Then during tele-op, I see a potential of 3-4. This is because driving skill is going to be one of if not the biggest thing this year. Folks are gonna be chasing balls like crazy because there are so few. So a total of 4-6 minus misses.
For a good team, I say 2 balls during auto. It will be tricky shooting a third ball in auto, even for good teams. For tele-op, most likely 5-6. The name of the game is chasing cargo, and there is a decent amount of variation on how it moves. So a total of 7-8.
Now onto the elites. 2-3 balls during auto. A few may get the chance for that third shot in auto. (Unlikely, but higher possibility with these teams. For tele-op, most likely 8-9. These are the best of the best drivers with best of the best intakes and shooters. I don’t expect that many misses other than by odd chance. So a total of 10-12.
For elites, 5 balls will be the norm during auto. They’ll just tell their teammates be out of the way.
Just looking back to 2020 with the insane autos.
There are 4 balls on the field available to them plus the terminal plus loaded. (plus two more if they instruct teammates not to preload)
The tooling has gotten better since then, too.
Well, non-preloaded balls go in front of the opponent’s alliance wall, which G210 makes a bad idea to try to get. (I’m assuming here that the text in 6.1.1 A.a and description during kickoff (around 57:12) are correct, and that figure 6-1 which has the balls in front of their own alliance wall is wrong.)
We all do need to go faster than 10fps. I wonder how many of us will figure it out, and do something about it?
Yeah, I only looked at the figures. Good catch and worth a QA.
I’m sure this will be addressed in team update 1, as it is game changing from an auton perspective for quals
If your alliance scores 25+ points in a qualification match, you’re most likely winning that match.
Is this about the typical sprint distance being relatively short?
We always overestimate the average team. The vast majority of average teams is not on CD, Discord or other apps and are working on their own.
So average team 0.5 in low goal auto + taxi then 2-4 in low goal or 2 high in teleop then mid bar maybe 2 out of three. That’s like 16 points max but more than likely under 8-10.
Above average maybe 15-20
Good 24-30
As always for elite the sky is the limit.
I think the average team will do low goal not high, but if we’re only looking at high…
Average: 2-3 balls
Good: 6-8 balls
Elite: 10+ balls
After reading this so far, the consensus seems to be the same, ~3 for average ~6-8 for good, and elite 10-12. And I completely agree, but I know we all have to be wrong, and I can’t wait for it.
In 2019 the average team in FRC scored 2.5 game objects. With this game I think:
Average: 3 cargo
Good: 6 cargo
Elite: 11 cargo, with a very high end of 14 with lucky exits
Probably too optimistic.
Why? I agree with Adam here that the sprint distance is short enough that acceleration is key and you will almost never get to those higher speeds (unless of course you are just running laps around the hab).
Speed is king…you always need to go as fast as you can. Then again, I haven’t done the acceleration testing to see how long it takes to get up to 10fps with a kit 4 cim drivetrain, either. I just know that 10 fps is not very fast!
I think we all can agree speed (in the sense of be quick) is king. What do you think the average distance to you next ball will be during the game? Going off of some of the answers above saying you pick up 6 balls? I think looking at a driving simulator will be illuminating for you.
My predictions:
3 - Average of 50% percentile bots
8 - 95%
12 - 99%
2 more for each of the above for low goal shooting teams.
Hot take: I think you will see Orbit or another elite team deliver 22+ balls (when undefended and a lack of competition for balls) during the entire match.
That seems a bit low, actually. If you take the basic estimates that seem to be emerging on this thread as the baseline, one fairly average-to-good robot could score that in a match by themselves. Here’s how I would see a team like that scoring in many (most?) matches:
2 cargo in autonomous, high goal: 8 points
6 cargo in teleop, high goal: 12 points
Taxi off the tarmac in auto: 2 points
Climb to the mid-bar (the highest climb from the floor): 6 points
That’s 28 points by one team that’s scoring pretty much what you’d expect an experienced but by no means elite team to be able to. So even if both their partners ran defense and didn’t score, they could beat a 25 point team. That’s giving them 35 seconds/cycle in teleop too, so not something that’s crazy fast or anything. With their partners only scoring at the basic rookie level as alliance partners scoring a baseline 6 points (1 auto and 2 teleop cargo, all low goal, exit tarmac, no climb) you’re up to a 40 point score. So I’m dubious that 25 points will be an likely match winner.
I think the fact that more than one robot will be shooting for the upper hub in auto could mean multiple missed shots. When two, three, or even more robots start shooting for it in auto, there could be a lot of collisions, balls could bounce out after hitting each other, etc.