YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2018's Week 1 Regionals/Districts

Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

If you can post a reasoning that’s awesome, but we’ll take just a number as well.

Click here for last year’s predictions (2017)

The predicted average from this thread last year was ~125 points for qualifying matches, and the actual week 1 average qualifying score was about 165 according to TBA.

2017 stats from TBA

Previous Years

Good luck!

136 points will be the average week 1 quals match score.

Week 1: 140 points

200 points

Even weak alliances can score lots of points by just putting one cube on their switch.

Breaking it down by category:
2 / 3 robots cross. 10 points.
1/4 alliances get the auto switch, with an average point value of 20 points per success. 5 Points.
Each alliance holds their switch for 2/3 (or a bit more) of the remaining match. I’ll say of the 135 sec. teleop, they hold for 95. This is, well, 95 points.
Only 1/4 alliances have the capacity to really operate the scale. They take 30 seconds to get on it, (including auto) and hold it for, on average, 90 seconds. (taking into account the chance both alliances can work the scale.) This is 90/4 = 22.5 points.
LEVITATE is played nearly every match (30 + 15), and some distribution of 3 cubes is done between the two other categories, which score (15 + 10) points for the alliance. This totals 70 points. (Note that some points may be denied through this process. This is taken into account with the 10. )
Outside of LEVITATE, 1/6 robots climb (30 points), and 1 gets the 5-point bonus. This is intentionally underestimated, given that I sense the vault outlook may be an overestimate. I say 10 points.
Fouls: I’ll say 12.5 points a match. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see quite a few tech fouls on hitting in a restricted zone.

Total: 10 + 5 +95 +22.5 + 70 + 10 + 12.5 = 225. Seems high, but that’s the prediction.

I think around 200 points as well. Here is the breakdown

3 Auto crosses = 15

10 seconds of auto switch control = 20

135 seconds of teleop switch control = 135

3 Power Up Cubes for Levitate = 15 points

Levitate Free Climb = 30 points

2 parked bots = 10 points

Week One Is Hard = -25 points

SUM = 200

Week One score

Quals :160

Elims: 250

Predicting the week 1 will average 170-180.

I see the average score to be upwards of 300 points in week one easily.

Here’s my bold prediction: the highest score of the entire season will be set during week one.

That’s getting pretty close to the point maximum, what makes you think so high?

C is common, most matches
UC is uncommon 30% or fewer matches
R is rare, 10% or fewer matches
I IS impossible, 3% or fewer matches

My prediction is about 150 points.

I say 100 points

I think 225 is a reasonable average score.

I expect to see quite a few lower scores (150 range) with scattered higher scores (around 300). I believe that week 1 scores this year will set and hold the points record. Picture this: Only one robot on the field in a quals match can do the scale. One cube. Done. That is a lot of points guaranteed the rest of the match, whereas in later events it will go back and forth more often. I would put the average around 200 due to this.

I say about 120 for week 1.

I wonder what 125 is planning for this year…

I will also predict high scores will decline after week one. Auto will be low (7-12 points average), but there will be scores in the range of 250 on occasion. Weeks two and three may also see some of the same, but high scores will slowly go down, while average scores go up a little. CMP averages will be double that of week one, but high scores will be less than 200.

  1. 135 from alliance switch + 30ish from power ups. + 30 for lev +135/4 for scale - 30 for opponent switch blocking.