YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2019’s Week 1 Regionals/Districts


#1

Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

If you can post a reasoning that’s awesome, but we’ll take just a number as well.

Click here for last year’s predictions (2018)

The predicted average from this thread last year was ~200 points for qualifying matches, and the actual week 1 average qualifying score was about 255 according to TBA.

2018 stats from TBA

Previous Years
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2018

Good luck!


#2

Probably somewhere around 60: one rocket, 1 ranking point for climbing, and some points on cargo ship. (or any other alternative)


#3

Sadly, you have messed up the title.


#4

YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2018’s Week 1 Regionals/Districts

2018? Alright then, based on The Blue Alliances’ data, combining quals and playoffs, I got 264.088092105 points.

For 2019, though, I think we’ll see, on average:
1 rocket (30pts)
2 completed cargo pods (10 pts)
Two level 2 starts and one level 1 start (15 pts)
One level 2 finish and two level 1 finishes (12 pts)

That makes… 67 pts.


#5

Doh! It’s fixed, and I didn’t even need to call a mod. This new software is pretty slick.


#6

oh thats cool, didnt even know we could do that!


#7

Based on TBA Insights from Week 1 of 2017 / 2018, with a healthy dose of assumptions.

Autonomous
80% of the time teams got the Auto Run in 2018. Picking numbers out of the air, I’ll assume 10% of teams start on the second level.

26% of the time alliances got the autonomous rotor in 2017, which we’ll use as a stand in for delivering cargo. If you apply that on a per team basis it’s almost certainly optimistic, since it implies that a double rotor should have happened ~1.5% of the time and it never did in week 1.

0.8x3x(0.9x3+0.1x6)= 7.9 pt

Teleop
86% of week 1 alliances in 2017 scored 2 rotor (delivered 2 gears) while 24% of alliances scored 3 rotors (5 gears). That suggests the median alliance was capable of something like 4 game object deliveries (including autonomous!!) and since the robot goodness distribution is pretty skewed, the average is probably more like 5 or 6. For the purposes of napkin math, I’ll assume that those are split 50/50 between hatches and cargo.

3x2+3x3=15

End Game
36% of robots successfully climbed in week 1 of 2017
15% of robots successfully climbed in week 1 of 2018

I’m going to assume a third level climb is 3x harder than a 2018 climb (ie 5% of the time), a second level climb is similar to 2017, and a first level climb occurs 80% of the remainder.

3x(0.05x12+0.15x6+0.64x0.3) = 7.8 pts

That works out to a sum of ~31 points.

Reasonable Skepticism

  • Delivering gears in autonomous was a super precision task, is placing cargo and hatches easier? History shows even delivering pre-loaded game pieces is hard!
  • Delivering gears required driving the full length of the field, shouldn’t placing cargo and hatches be faster since they are closer? History shows picking up game pieces is hard!
  • I am probably pretty over-optimistic on level 3 climbs, but maybe I’m under optimistic on level 2 and level 1? 3 pts is a lot if the average score is really 30.

#8

week 1 without real field practice apart from practice day…

Average score 42 by day 3

Initial thoughts of week 1… most will get move bonus, most will fill low ports on a rocket, some will park in hab, possibly two on cargo ship scored with 5pts


#9

For qualification matches in week 1, I’d guess about 25 points will be the average.


#10

I’m going to be optimistic and say around 70 points, a full rocket and a mix of the other rocket and cargo. I want to beleive


#11

25 points average quals score, 40 average elims score.


#12

About 30 points. 12-15 Sandstorm and HAB points (some will consistently get a Level 2 climb but that will be offset by dead robots that don’t move and those that can’t get back). 7 total game pieces scored per match, worth 16 points if 5 hatches and 2 cargo.

In Elims you get 21 Sandstorm and HAB points for all robots moving and ending at Level 1 with some bots consistently doing Level 2. 10 total game pieces in teleop, 7 hatches and 3 cargo, gives 23 points. 2/3 of the alliances have a robot that consistently scores a hatch on a front cargo port during the Sandstorm for 5 points (hatch + cargo). Round up and the Elims average week 1 will be 49 points.


#13

I think 10-15 point with few to no 3-level climbs. I imagine leader after sandstorm is going to take most matches.


#14

45±25 at 95% confidence


#15

Around 35 points and extra RP will be very rare ~5% or so.


#16

Last year I underestimated the number of teams capable of building a robot that could score on the scale, and I was thrilled to see how good the teams were in Week One competitions. This year, though, I think the Cargo will be significantly harder to score on the upper levels than the Cubes were, and we won’t see as many teams pulling it off. I’m predicting an average score in Week One of 27 points per alliance.


#17

42 +/- 12 80% confidence


#18

I’m going to try out this new poll feature. Choose below for the average score in week 1. Values in poll round up (ex. 0 is from 0-4, 5 is from 5-9).

  • 0
  • 5
  • 10
  • 15
  • 20
  • 25
  • 30
  • 35
  • 40
  • 45
  • 50
  • 55
  • 60
  • 65
  • 70
  • 75
  • 80
  • 85
  • 90
  • 95

0 voters

I stopped at 100 as no one posted above 100, and that makes the poll obnoxiously long.

Edit: Apparently you can’t have a poll with more than 20 options, good to know!

Edit 2: Looks like this poll averages the values… not what I expected. Statistically speaking, we should be adding 2 to whatever the poll ends up with to get the real result.


#19

Fair warning, it automatically accepts what you click without confirming. Accidentally chose 70.

Edit: Clicking “hide results” lets you go back and change your choice.


#20

tl;rd : pessimistically 33, more likely 40-45 in qualifications, 50-60 in elimination matches

Any team that can drive forward and backwards can earn 6-9 points (blindly driving off the HAB in standstorm, driving back onto level 1 of the HAB in endgame), so there’s 24 points on an alliance. I’ll assume only 80% of teams can drive. That’s 19.2 points.

I’ll assume that 33% of teams can even drive onto the level 2 at the end of the match, ~15% of the time they’re unlucky though and all 3 alliance partners could do it but they can’t all fit, taking the level 1 --> 2 HAB points from 2 points on average to 1.7. Assuming nobody at all can do level 3, or fit 3 robots onto the level 2 platforms.

That’s basically a 20 point average without anyone scoring a single cargo or hatch (or penalty).

I’ll assume that teams manage an average of 30 seconds to acquire a game piece, and another 30 to place it. I’ll also assume that in 40% of your matches one of your robots is tied up by your opponent, another 40% your teammate is over playing defense not scoring points, and in 20% a robot don’t show up or bursts into flames at the start of the match. Making your average robots actually scoring points per match 2.
With 210 seconds in each match that’s an average of 3 game pieces scored (first 30 you score your pre-loaded piece, then you pick up, then score, then pick up, then score), but we’ll take away a half a cycle so we have 30 seconds for endgame. 2.5 scoring cycles.
Each game piece is an average of 2.5 points, so that’s 12.5 points between your 2 contributing robots on the alliance.

19.2 points for just driving, 1.7 points for Level 2 HAB, and 12.5 points for scoring game pieces; Total of 33.4 points.

I think that’s an very pessimistic estimate, teams will have better than an average 60 second cycle time, more than 80% of teams will be able to drive, some teams will be able to complete level 3 HAB, defense will be rare enough in week 1 that you should have more than 2 average contributing robots, there will be some penalties.

I think a more likely estimate will be ~40-45 points for qualifications, and 50-60 for eliminations.