tl;rd : pessimistically 33, more likely 40-45 in qualifications, 50-60 in elimination matches

Any team that can drive forward and backwards can earn 6-9 points (blindly driving off the HAB in standstorm, driving back onto level 1 of the HAB in endgame), so there’s 24 points on an alliance. I’ll assume only 80% of teams can drive. That’s 19.2 points.

I’ll assume that 33% of teams can even drive onto the level 2 at the end of the match, ~15% of the time they’re unlucky though and all 3 alliance partners could do it but they can’t all fit, taking the level 1 --> 2 HAB points from 2 points on average to 1.7. Assuming nobody at all can do level 3, or fit 3 robots onto the level 2 platforms.

That’s basically a 20 point average without anyone scoring a single cargo or hatch (or penalty).

I’ll assume that teams manage an average of 30 seconds to acquire a game piece, and another 30 to place it. I’ll also assume that in 40% of your matches one of your robots is tied up by your opponent, another 40% your teammate is over playing defense not scoring points, and in 20% a robot don’t show up or bursts into flames at the start of the match. Making your average robots actually scoring points per match 2.

With 210 seconds in each match that’s an average of 3 game pieces scored (first 30 you score your pre-loaded piece, then you pick up, then score, then pick up, then score), but we’ll take away a half a cycle so we have 30 seconds for endgame. 2.5 scoring cycles.

Each game piece is an average of 2.5 points, so that’s 12.5 points between your 2 contributing robots on the alliance.

19.2 points for just driving, 1.7 points for Level 2 HAB, and 12.5 points for scoring game pieces; Total of 33.4 points.

I think that’s an very pessimistic estimate, teams will have better than an average 60 second cycle time, more than 80% of teams will be able to drive, some teams will be able to complete level 3 HAB, defense will be rare enough in week 1 that you should have more than 2 average contributing robots, there will be some penalties.

I think a more likely estimate will be ~40-45 points for qualifications, and 50-60 for eliminations.