The way he intended it was for each number to represent the range between the shown number and the next highest, which is an average of 2.5 higher than the shown number. He thought it would be a bar graph, it’s not (unfortunately).
Then add 2, not 2.5, the average of 0-4 is 2
Yeah, you’re correct. I’ve changed it to be 2.
I predict around 35.
6 Points for Auto.
20 Points for Tele-OP (4 Cargo and 4 Hatches). I think placing on the Rocket will be much harder than expected.
9 Total Points in Climbing. I think level 3 climbs will be very rare, especially in quals.
My guess would be somewhere in the 30-40 range for regular matches and 40-50 for eliminations. There is only so much time, and with the minimal drive practice, I can’t see even the best of teams exceeding my estimates by any more than 20 points.
Sandstorm bonus: 10-14 (Probably higher end)
10% of games will get 9, 15% will get 12, and 75% will get 15. An insignificant will get less than 9, at most 3% ish. Ignoring the games that will get less than 9, the average is 13.95. Driving forwards even if you can’t see is very possible, and most robots will be able to tank the fall from level 2.
I’ve seen high approximations of robots that can’t drive, as high as 20% but I think it’s probably less than 1%, at least at the competitions I’ve seen. Assuming a low standard, it would be around 10.
Hatches and Cargo: 22.5-45 points (probably lower end)
Just looking at last years average for cubes, each robot will do an average of 4 (30) of either hatches or cargos. I reckon it will actually be a bit lower, maybe 3 (22.5) or 3.5 but it could get up 6 (45) or something if lower level teams specialize in one of the pieces rather than trying to do both.
Habitat : 12-18 points (probably middle)
Most games will have two 1st level, and 1 2nd level and get 12 points. Maybe 10% or so will have two on the 2nd level and maybe 20% would have 3 on the 1st level. An insignificant percentage will have less than 9 points. A very small percentage, at most 5% would get more than 15 points, but they would get enough more such that the average moves closer.
Low end: 44.5
Middle Ground: 61
High End: 77
This feels kinda high for everything, but thats what its seems like it’ll be after actually going through it. I probably overestimated capabilities during sandstorm and habitat parking and other people seem to think that a lot more robots will do nothing.
My personal bet is 51.5, going with around what I said it would probably be.
Robots aren’t gonna be making great cycle times week 1. I also think defense will be a much bigger impact than a few points. So less than 20 per team.
I know this is higher than a lot of people are saying, but I feel it could reach 60-70 points by day 3, even higher for the elimination matches.
I think it will be about 75 points
1 of each Sandstorm Bonus (9)
1 rocket (30 pts)
3 Cargo Pods (15 pts)
1 Level of Each HAB (21 Pts)
Based on what I saw today, I don’t expect the average score to be over 35.
Sandstorm: I’m predicting 9-12 points here. Most teams should be able to drive forward to get the level 1 bonus, and some will probably be able to get the level 2 bonus. I think it will be 12 more often than not, but there will definitely be times where teams either can’t get the level 2 bonus or don’t get the level 1 bonus.
Scoring Game Pieces: I think this will be around 20. that would be 4 completed cargo bays, which would require each robot to place around 3 game pieces. Accounting for defense, that seems like a reasonable average. It might even be lower if both alliances decide to send over a defense bot. Dropped game pieces will play a big role in this. I think there will be many dropped hatch panels, and I don’t think many teams will have a working ground pickup by week 1. If teams are able to utilize the pre-populated game pieces, this number could be higher, but I don’t know how well the sandstorm period will go this early into the season. I could just be underestimating everything, but I don’t think I am.
Hab Climbing: I think climbing will be around the same as sandstorm, 9-12. There will of course be those robots who can climb to level 2 and maybe even level 3 by week 1, but I don’t think there will be that many. I think this will usually be closer to 9 points.
So that is 12 points for sandstorm, 20 for game pieces, and 9 for climbing. Added up, that puts us at 41 points. This seems pretty high given what I’ve been seeing from the 2 competitions so far, so I think this might be the higher end of scores. I could just be completely wrong on cycles, but we will see soon.
This might be a bit optimistic, but I’m guessing around 63 points.
Sandstorm (15 seconds):
17 points (with two level 2 robots and one level 1 robot); I’m thinking that even if teams don’t have autonomous code or a camera, they’ll still take their chances driving blind off the platform to get the points. I’m also thinking that one robot will be able to score a hatch into a bay preloaded with cargo for another 5 points.
Teleop (105 seconds):
34 points. Our team did a simulation with a person moving at the speed of last year’s robot with a ‘driver’ calling out instructions to the ‘robot’ to simulate driving conditions, and we had an average cycle time of 15-20 seconds.
Assuming that one robot is capable of the 15 second cycle time and that the other two are capable of the 20 second cycle time, and that all of them do hatches, then we should get a total of about 17 hatches, for 34 points.
Endgame (last 30 seconds):
12 points. Probably similar to sandstorm, but more likely one level 2 robot and two level 1 robots.
The correct answer was 41.15, making Boltman the closest guess with 42!